Wrap-up of price spikes in November 2024
There have been about 10 occasions in the market’s history when the last week of November has led to extreme prices and this November, was no exception – Carl Daley of EnergyByte provides this wrap-up.
demand forecast
Moderately high demand forecast for South Australia on the Adelaide Cup Day long weekend
A quick look (Friday morning 8th March 2024) to moderately high levels of demand forecast for SA in heatwave conditions this long (Adelaide Cup Day) weekend.
Antony Stace’s question about the step change (down) in QLD demand forecasts in AEMO MT PASA runs during February 2024
A question this morning by Antony Stace (on LinkedIn) about AEMO’s demand forecasts for QLD prompts some further context here in this WattClarity article, with quick use of ez2view.
2024 Consultation on Forecasting Accuracy Report Methodology
The methodology used to assess performance of AEMO’s longer-term forecasts is under review via the consultation process.
AEMO releases 2023 ESOO on Thursday 31st August 2023 (Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge)
AEMO notes that ‘Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge’ in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
QLD Market Demand for 17:30 lands at ‘only’ 9750MW (Fri 3rd Feb 2023)
(Not even) close … but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
The worm has turned? Actual demand levels dropping lower than forecast (QLD 3rd Feb 2023) … maybe no record?
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in ‘successfully’ forecasting electricity demand!
Forecasts pointing to record demand and other risks in QLD for Friday afternoon.. but caveats aplenty
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the prior all-time record). Dan Lee looks into how the demand forecast has been evolving and what to watch for this Friday afternoon.
Might see more price volatility this week … at least in QLD?
With Brisbane feeling more like a ‘normal’ summer in recent days, we took a look at the demand forecast for the coming week.
Tight supply-demand balance forecast for QLD and NSW on Thursday 2nd June 2022
A quick look at the current forecast for tight supply-demand balance on Thursday evening 2nd June 2022
Forecast tight supply/demand balance in Queensland on Monday 31st January, Tuesday 1st and Wednesday 2nd February 2022
A couple SMS alerts to AEMO Market Notices speaking about ‘LOR3’ Low Reserve Condition warnings (i.e. controlled ‘load shedding’) spiked my interest, so I took a look on Thursday afternoon about what’s forecast for Wednesday next week (2nd February 2022) in Queensland…
AEMO forecasts new record minimum Operational Demand (NEM-wide) on Sunday 17th October
Looks like Sunday 17th October will be an interesting day, with a new ‘record low’ for Operational Demand on a NEM-wide basis forecast by AEMO!
Is the predictability of day-ahead demand improving?
Day-ahead demand forecasts will be integral to any future ‘Ahead Market’. We take a look at the current state and accuracy trend of demand forecasts made 24 hours ahead as part of the broader piece of work to feed into GenInsights21.
Potential Tripwire #1 = the ‘invisible’ 5-minute Trading Periods?!
In this article we discuss the 1st of 3 Potential Tripwires that wholesale market participants and others will encounter from October 2021 … with Tripwire #1 coming from the implementation of Five Minute Settlement.
Three potential tripwires looming in October 2021, for those who are not wary
A short article, flagging three potential tripwires we’d like to ensure NEM participants and other stakeholders are aware of in the lead-up to two significant market changes from October 2021.
Lets talk about demand
David Leitch of ITK Services examines how electricity is losing its share of energy consumption in Australia, while also looking at the main drivers behind lower electricity demand this Summer compared to the previous year.
Victoria’s snap lockdown drops demand forecast by ~1000MW
In the middle of the day today (Fri 12th Feb) VIC Premier Dan Andrews announced a snap lockdown – here’s a quick look at how this was (quickly) added into the ST PASA Operational Demand forecast.
An evolving perspective – forecast impacts of the South Australia short, sharp ‘Circuit Breaker’ COVID response
Some brief notes about the impact that South Australia’s ‘Stay at Home’ order might have on demand in the region.
Factors contributing to an unforeseen price spike in NSW at 16:15 on Thursday 31st January 2019
Taking a brief (well, actually longer than intended) look into the various factors that delivered a price spike above $10,000/MWh on Thursday 31st January in NSW – and thinking through the implications for one particular Demand Response client, and for the broader market.
A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.