Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that "things" will always be that way.
Articles by Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
The two, SA Government-owned, “Emergency Generators” produce first power whilst commissioning
The two emergency generators provide first power to the South Australian grid.
Villain #2 – we, the voting public
My sense is that we, the voting public, are Villains #2 in running the energy transition train off the tracks.
Villain #1 – our Emperors (present, past and would-be) have no clothes
First up in our listing of Villains in relation to the unfolding energy crisis are, of course, our political leaders - State and Federal, past, present and prospective.
A long list of Villains – that have each contributed to our “energy crisis”
A multi-layered energy crisis is upon us. I've identified 10 "root causes" (or "villains") that have each played key roles in the way in which our energy transition has run off the rails.
The solar component of the Gullen Range Power Station started operation on 14th September
Quick look at how Gullen Range solar has gone, since it started on 14th September.
Here’s two odd examples being used in attempt to justify a claim of why privatisation will lead to higher spot prices
Reading an article in the Courier Mail on Saturday I was struck by the use of two particularly odd examples to support a case for retention of government ownership of electricity generation.
A selected (and evolving) chronology of the QLD Government’s involvement in the QLD Generation sector
Here's a chronological record of key aspects of government involvement in the generation sector within Queensland.
Comparison between Liddell Power Station (in NSW) with Muja A&B Power Station (in WA)
Some quick thoughts about the comparison being made by others between two ageing coal-fired power stations (Liddell power station in NSW and the Muja A&B stations in the SWIS of WA)
Initial questions about the LGC market
Our first look at trended LGC production (aggregated by state/territory) and LGC spot prices (monthly average), now possible in NEMreview v7, generates a number of questions...
Why is wind production being curtailed (or “dispatched down”, more strictly speaking)?
It was inevitable that Semi-Scheduled plant would start to experience times when they are dispatched down. It's a big prompt to take next steps up the learning curve.
Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain "what might have otherwise been".
How much wind-powered electricity production has been curtailed in SA since these new constraints were invoked?
An article that sums up some decidedly un-quick calculations we've performed - looking over an 8 week period to 13th September to estimate how much wind power has been curtailed by the AEMO.
How significant would it be, if Mt Piper were forced to close (at least temporarily)?
A quick look at the scale of the challenge, if Mt Piper were to be forced to close following a court challenge to coal supplies upstream
It’s very misleading to claim “Since the introduction of the National Electricity Market in 1996 the wholesale price of energy has risen dramatically”
The wholesale cost of electricity has risen (too fast, too high) in recent years. However let's not let ourselves be conned into believing that this has arisen, now, because of the creation of the...
On Saturday 2nd September, AEMO reacted to Severe Weather Warning by imposing limits on interconnector
On Saturday 2nd September, AEMO responded to a BOM-issued "Severe Weather Event" warning by reducing flow capacity west on the Heywood link. Here's how that looked...
Wind production in South Australia roared out of the June doldrums to a new production record in July 2017
From one extreme (perhaps lowest ever in June 2017, on like-for-like) to the other (new record production) in the space of just one month for aggregate wind in South Australia
A solar eclipse is just one type of a larger class of challenge with solar PV
Some thoughts about challenges with intermittent solar PV, triggered by this week's Solar Eclipse in North America
Energy Users as the “victim” in the train wreck that’s unfolding before our eyes
A few thoughts about how energy users (including each of us) are the main victims in the unfolding train wreck that's become of this energy transition off the rails.
[In the NEM, at least] Business consumption of electricity dwarfs residential consumption of electricity
AEMO data for the National Electricity Market shows business consumption of electricity is more than twice that of residential consumption of electricity