Forecast LOR3 (load shedding) now spans NSW for Monday evening, 13th June … and QLD tomorrow (morning/evening) as well
The outlook continues to get worse and worse… forecast load shedding extended to NSW this evening and into QLD tomorrow as well.
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
The yo-yo cases of Available Generation in the QLD region through Sunday 12th June and Monday 13th June 2022
A quick tabular list of the 7 cases overnight where QLD saw ‘Actual LOR2’ and/or yo-yo Available Generation
AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding this evening is up to 1,454MW (i.e. about the size of Brisbane)
AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding in QLD this evening is for an enormous amount (1,454MW)
AEMO’s forecast for load shedding in QLD on Monday evening grows more severe
Forecast load shedding in QLD this evening is growing more severe…
Desperate times call for desperate measures on Monday 13th June 2022 (constraints violating … increased risk of Voltage Collapse)
Here’s one example of the steps being taken by AEMO (which would ordinarily be considered as not advisable) to match supply and demand in the NEM (and particularly the QLD region) with Administered Pricing at play.
AEMO forecasts LOR3 (i.e. controlled Load Shedding) for QLD on Monday evening 13th June 2022
AEMO’s now forecasting load shedding for this evening … Monday 13th June 2022
With Administered Pricing in QLD, overnight NEM activity enters the rabbit hole
First article on Monday 13th June 2022 with QLD under Administered Pricing – looking at not only QLD but also strange outcomes everywhere else…
Bizarre pricing continues outside of the QLD region
At 22:40 the price exceeds $10,000/MWh in NSW, VIC and SA … with QLD under Administered Pricing.
For the 3rd time this evening … QLD at an ‘Actual LOR2’ warning level
Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.
After AP is imposed in QLD, volatility started elsewhere
Volatility has ramped up in NSW, VIC, SA and TAS (particularly SA) with QLD under Administered Pricing.
With reserves in QLD wafer thin, here’s an ez2view of what’s running and what’s not…
Fifth article on Sunday 12th June takes a quick look at what’s on (and what’s not) in QLD this evening under AP with very tight margins.
Under Administered Pricing = QLD Actual LOR2, very low IRPM, and so Market Direction
Sunday evening 12th June in QLD and it’s getting very, very tight…
South Australia spikes, with Heywood unconstrained … with QLD under Administered Pricing
A follow-on from Administered Pricing in QLD is the start of some head-scratching market outcomes … such as this spike in South Australia.
QLD volatility Sunday evening explodes past the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT)
A quick article Sunday evening as the Cumulative Price for the QLD region skyrockets ever so close to the Cumulative Price Threshold…
Severe weather in TAS causes disconnects customer load – and coincides with transmission line trips
Recap of some transmission trips overnight in TAS … coincident with severe weather.
Reviewing the 500MW drop in Available Generation in QLD on Friday evening 10th June 2022
A Saturday afternoon initial review of what’s visible in ‘Next Day Public’ data via ez2view to look at the causes behind the unexpected 500MW drop in Available Generation capacity in the QLD region (which was one factor in the triggering of the ‘Actual LOR2’ warning from the AEMO)
Four hours at above $1,000/MWh drives Cumulative Price well above $1,100,000 and close to Cumulative Price Threshold in QLD on Friday evening 10th June 2022
A later article reviewing how Cumulative Price in Queensland has jumped upwards this evening (towards the CPT) as a result of a solid four hours above $1,000/MWh.
Friday evening volatility in the QLD Region (escalated to actual LOR2)
Price volatility has returned to the QLD region on Friday evening 10th June 2022.
Friday (10th June) morning volatility in QLD and NSW
A brief note about this morning’s volatility.
Brisbane’s week is ‘Coldest in 118 years’ … what is the outlook for electricity demand?
A news article this morning along the lines of ‘coldest in 100 years’ jumped out at me.