This week saw a new record demand in NSW of 13,292MW on Thursday 2nd February. Correspondingly, average prices were above $100/MWh in both NSW and Queensland – but the price spikes did not transfer to the southern regions.
Articles by Paul McArdle
Based on forecasts NEMMCO had been providing through their PASA process, we expected that it might prove that this week would deliver huge demand levels, and high prices.
Not to disappoint, the market did deliver high levels of demand in all regions:
(a) Peak demand levels were reduced somewhat from the huge levels the previous week in Victoria and South Australia;
(b) Demand levels were also still building to the record level to be experienced the following week in NSW;
(c) Peak demand levels in Queensland were fairly steady (and high) for most weeks of summer.
(d) In combination, a new NEM-wide peak demand target of 30,994MW was set on Monday 23rd January.
This week saw very low average prices across the NEM (below $21/MWh average across the week in all mainland regions).
Except for 2 half-hours in Tasmania on Tuesday 7th February (when the price rose to just over $1,000/MWh), prices in Tasmania remained at and around $30/MWh for the whole week.
Demand in Victoria peaked again, bringing with it high prices in Victoria and (to a lesser extent) South Australia.
Indeed, the demand experienced in Victoria (on Friday 24th February) exceeded the previous high level of 8,552MW for summer, set in January 2006.
Our analysis looked at generator behaviour on the occasions of these price spikes.
Summer 2005-06 saw Australians sweltering in temperatures 40 degrees and above.
In the National Electricity Market, this led to new peaks in demand and (given the tight supply/demand balance) delivered high (and volatile) spot market pricing.
Here we have compiled a weekly summary of events in the NEM over summer 2005-06.
In a week which is traditionally very subdued in the market, the NEM sweltered in temperatures in excess of 40 degrees and an exceptional NEM-wide demand (about 30,000MW) was recorded.
What made this demand peak more remarkable was that this occurred on a day when, traditionally, a large amount of commercial and industrial load would have been offline for the Christmas & New Year holiday.
This article was written prior to 2nd February and drew from the insights gained with our NEMforecastTM product to highlight the looming issue of the tight supply/demand balance forecast for 2nd February 2006.
The week started with commotion in Queensland, when the VOLL price ceiling was reached.
Further analysis revealed that this was due to transmission system events and the trip of several generation units within Queensland.