11am forecasts for LOR3 (load shedding) across the NEM for Tuesday 14th June 2022
A first look today at what’s forecast for load shedding this evening (some very large numbers for both QLD and NSW).
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
TAS spot price at $15,100/MWh with near-record Market Demand … and NEM-wide IRPM hits a low of 4.33% Tuesday morning
Second article this morning, highlighting the very tight supply-demand balance.
Tuesday morning’s first update – including this evening’s forecast LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW
First update on Tuesday 14th June … with load shedding still forecast for this evening in NSW
South Australia and then Victoria follow NSW in joining QLD on Administered Pricing
All four mainland regions of the NEM are now under Administered Pricing … with SA and then VIC joining NSW and QLD in quick succession Monday evening 13th June 2022.
Highlighting Coopers Gap Wind Farm rebid on Sunday evening 12th June 2022
Will need more time to think why Coopers Gap WF would bid in this way on Sunday evening with ‘Actual LOR2’ notices at play.
A quick review of yo-yo instance number 3 (after 22:00 on Sunday 12th June 2022)
A quick look, in between times, at ‘Incidence 03’ … which occurred after 22:00 on Sunday 12th June 2022.
IRPM on a NEM-wide basis drops down to 9% again, at 20:05
The IRPM has dropped again this evening, with drops in Available Generation outpacing drops in Demand.
Is South Australia or Victoria next to the CPT … with Administered Pricing also in NSW?
With NSW under Administered Pricing now (<24 since QLD hit that mark) we look at other regions and who might be next domino to fall.
Steps taken by AEMO, so we could (hopefully!) dodge the LOR3 bullet this evening
Copying in this quick update from the AEMO.
NSW smashes past Cumulative Price Threshold on Monday evening 13th June 2022
NSW has joined QLD by exceeding the Cumulative Price Threshold … and now Administered Pricing to begin.
AEMO cancels forecast load shedding (LOR3) in the QLD region for this evening
Small celebration!
IRPM drops to only 8% NEM-wide
As demand climbs into the evening the IRPM is dropping.
NEM-wide IRPM down to only 13%
It’s 17:30 and the white knuckle ride through this evening begins…
Actual LOR2 in the QLD Region
Another update late this afternoon, with Actual LOR2 in place.
The vast disconnect between prices DUIDs say they need to run, and market capped prices
Two copies of the ‘NEM Prices’ widget in ez2view highlights a disconnect.
One more factor to consider … wind harvest drops under 1,000MW on Monday evening, NEM wide
Adding to the complexity of a dire supply-demand balance, aggregate production from wind has dropped below 1000MW today.
Update on AEMO’s forecasts for load shedding – QLD and NSW, today and tomorrow
In what is a rapidly evolving situation, we see here another update from the AEMO … extending forecast load shedding into NSW for tomorrow evening as well.
AEMO to trigger Reserve Trader (RERT)
AEMO may well trigger Reserve Trader
A quick review of yo-yo instance number 2 (pre 22:00 on Sunday 12th June 2022)
A short review of what we named ‘Instance #2’ in the yo-yo-ing of Available Generation after Administered Prices came into effect.
AEMC publishes ‘How to lodge a claim for compensation’
Might be useful to some of our readers…