It’s a week earlier than I expected it to be, but the news article about a (possible) delayed closure to Torrens referred to an AEMO report … which prompted me to take a quick look:
Indeed I found that (on Thursday 21st August 2025, and the AEMO released its Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) for 2025. This follows on from earlier issues:
(1) Annual updates, in the years before, and then …
(2) In 2021, the AEMO released the ESOO 2021 (on 31st August 2021) and also the ESOO 2021 Update (on 14th April 2022, in response to several significant developments after that time).
(3) In 2022, the AEMO released the ESOO 2022 (on 31st August 2022) and also the ESOO 2022 Update (on 21st February 2023).
(4) For 2023, the AEMO released the ESOO 2023 (on 31st August 2023) and also the ESOO 2023 Update (on 21st May 2024).
(5) For 2024, the AEMO released the ESOO 2024 (on 29th August 2024) … but not a 2024 ESOO update?
Readers here can access the report, and accompanying materials, as follows:
| The Report | Other Materials |
|---|---|
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Not only was it a week earlier than prior years – it’s also a bit shorter. You can download the 100-page PDF of the report here:
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There’s more information (including earlier copies of the ESOO) collated on this this AEMO subsite. 1) Amongst the materials is this two-page overview. 2) The AEMO is also hosting a webinar about the ESOO on Thursday 28th August) with registration details here. |
With respect to this release of the ESOO, readers might like to note the following:
(A) What AEMO notes about the report
There’s a Media Release titled ‘Reliability outlook improves, timely investment delivery essential’ – in which the AEMO notes:
‘Reflecting the positive investment momentum underway to meet growing demand and replace retiring generation, the report shows improved reliability outlooks, reliant on all expected investments being delivered on time and in full.
This year’s report assesses reliability against two development outlooks:
1) A Government Schemes and Actionable Developments reliability assessment, which reflects more than 50 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and storage capacity, including the Capacity Investment Scheme as agreed through Renewable Energy Transformation Agreements with the states, and state-based schemes, and actionable transmission developments; and
2) A Committed and Anticipated Developments reliability assessment that includes only those generation, storage and transmission projects that are sufficiently advanced to meet AEMO’s committed or anticipated criteria.’
(B) What we have noted on WattClarity®, about the ESOO
Here on WattClarity®:
1) Prior to the release of the ESOO we have posted:
To come …
2) Following the release of the ESOO we have posted:
(a) Just beforehand, ‘AGL considering State Government request to keep Torrens Island open for two more years’;
(b) This article, obviously
To come …
(C) News Media commentary about the ESOO 2024
So far today I have come across commentary in a range of places, including the following:
1) In the AFR we have seen…
(a) As the clock ticked over into this morning, Ryan Cropp and Angela MacDonald Smith published the article ‘Power grid delays force SA gas plant extension’…
… which I’ve already written about in ‘AGL considering State Government request to keep Torrens Island open for two more years’.
2) In the Australian we have seen …
(a) Colin Packham published the article ‘AEMO says renewables pipeline sufficient, but only if delivered on time‘…
3) In the Guardian we have seen …
4) In SMH and the Age we have seen …
(a) Nick Toscano published the article ‘Record clean energy surge set to break Australia’s coal reliance’…
5) In RenewEconomy we have seen …
(a) Sophie Vorrath published the article ‘AEMO says wind, solar and storage keeping energy reliability “healthy,” despite leap in data-driven demand’…
6) In PV Magazine we have seen …
7) In the ABC we have seen …
(a) Alex Brewster noted ‘Blackout warnings for Queenslanders ahead of summer from Australian Energy Market Operator’…
8) In The Energy we have seen …
9) In Michael West Media we have seen …
(a) A copy of the AAP article ‘Grid reliability gaps covered, if no project delays’…
As a reader here, if you come across any other useful commentary, feel free to add as a comment below.
(D) Commentary about the ESOO 2024 from Industry Organisations
So far today I have come across commentary in a range of places, including the following:
1) From the Energy Users Association of Australia (EUAA) …
(a) The Media Release ‘ESOO Says Everything Should Be Fine Provided Everything Gos To Plan. Should Energy Users Be Nervous?’ by Emily Wood has a (very understandable) sting in the tail ….
2) From the Australian Energy Council (AEC) …
(a) We’ve not had time to look yet….
3) From the Clean Energy Council (CEC) …
(a) We’ve not had time to look yet….
4) From the Smart Energy Council (SEC) …
(a) We’ve not had time to look yet….
5) From the Energy Networks Association (ENA) …
(a) We’ve not had time to look yet….
6) From the Climate Council …
(a) One of our readers pointed at the Media Release ‘major Investments in Renewables making our electricity grid cleaner than ever, more reliable’ today.
(E) Across the highpoints on Social Media
If we see anything (that we think is) particularly insightful on Social Media (and we have the time!) we’ll look to note it here:
1) Useful to note that Daniel Westerman (CEO of AEMO) has shared these comments on LinkedIn
… no surprise that he’s ‘on message’ with respect to the wording in the ESOO and the Media Release (but great to see the personal contribution)!
2) Of the growing number I’ve seen, this take from James Norton is probably worth highlighting – and hence I have copied in here for ease of readability:
‘The ESOO is out today, and I can’t help but feel there’s a bit of a cart before the horse situation emerging.
Under the “Government Schemes and Actionable Developments” scenario, AEMO is forecasting that we will meet the reliability standard across the NEM.
The glaring assumption is that AEMO is modelling on the basis that all the transmission projects listed as actionable in the 2024 ISP go ahead. With the recent discovery of eye-watering cost escalations — particularly for VNI West in Victoria — there’s every reason to believe the next ISP may not consider those projects actionable. If that’s the case, we could see a very different ESOO after the next ISP is published.
Essentially, we need:
– All actionable ISP transmission projects to proceed smoothly, and
– All CIS projects to progress to completion.
That’s a tall order. The big question for me is: what happens if this doesn’t all go to plan?’
The ESOO only dropped this morning (and a week earlier than I had envisaged) so I have not had time to even open it up yet … but, when I do, I’ll certainly be looking to understand what’s been done to model ‘what happens if it does not go to plan?’
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