A shorter and shallower bout of low IRPM on Wednesday evening 19th June 2024

There were a number of SMS alerts this evening, triggered by IRPM dropping below 15% for most dispatch intervals between 17:50 and 18:40 on Wednesday evening 19th June … but it was not as deep, or as long, as what happened on Monday 17th June or Tuesday 18th June … hence as per expectations in this earlier forecast.

Here’s a snapshot of the 17:50 dispatch interval in NEMwatch at the start of the run:


What’s notable in that snapshot includes:

1)  NEM-wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin at 14.46%

2)  NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ already up at 32,092MW

3)  From a VRE perspective:

(a)  Large Solar at close to 0MW

(b)  Wind yield just under 2,000MW … so better than was the case on Tuesday

4)  In this dispatch interval, the only interconnector constrained was Basslink.

5)  For the third evening in a row, despite the tight supply-demand balance, prices did not go ballistic.

… which is, in large part, due to the lack of intra-regional transmission constraints on the mainland (i.e. ensuring competition between generators in different regions).

Here’s a tabular run of NEM-wide IRPM, with the range of dispatch intervals under 15% highlighted … noting two in there were just above 15%:


In particular note:

1)  Lowest point this evening for NEM-wide IRPM was 18:00 down at 13.85%; whilst

2)  Highest point for NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ was 18:15, up at 32,262MW … so higher than seen on either on Monday 17th June or Tuesday 18th June.

That’s all for now.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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