Victoria’s electricity demand surged past its 17-year-old record this evening as extreme heat drove intense cooling load, with market demand reaching 10,567 MW at 17:40, and still rising at the time of writing.
Market demand in Victoria has been tracking above AEMO’s earlier P30 forecasts so far today, increasing the likelihood that the region’s 17-year demand record could be challenged.
Victoria is heading into a closely watched evening, with extreme heat forecast to push market demand to within striking distance of the region’s all-time record that has stood for seventeen years.
Overnight, Adelaide recorded its hottest night on record according to ABC News, with minimum temperatures staying above 34°C, resulting in flashes of price spikes in the region early this morning.
Despite the public holiday, extreme heat across South Australia has pushed evening demand above forecasts, contributing to a prolonged period of elevated spot prices near the market cap.
A quick note with a NEMwatch snapshot at 13:45 (NEM time) on Wednesday 7th January 2026, noting 'Underlying Demand' approaching 40GW. Is this the highest ever?
I thought it would be worth adding a couple snapshots from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view looking at ‘Market Demand’ as at various dispatch intervals on Thursday 26th June 2025 looking backwards ~7 days and forwards ~7 days
Here's an updated view of AEMO's forecasts for 'Market Demand' across the NEM (and Victoria) for Mon 3rd Feb and Tue 4th Feb 2025 - from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 12:55 dispatch (NEM time) on Sun 2nd Feb 2025.
There’s essentially three measures of demand that are commonly talked about, and they are not really interchangeable.
AEMO STPASA forecasts for QLD 'Market Demand' on Thursday 24th January 2025 is that it might be a new all-time record. Earlier STPASA forecasts suggested it would be above the (prior) all-time record from a year ago.
In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024.
A slightly longer summary (compared to this morning's) of some evening volatility (across the NEM) on Monday evening 5th August 2024.
A brief recap of Wednesday evening 19th June 2024.
Second article this evening (Mon 17th June 2024) adding some more detail to the tight supply-demand balance, hence low IRPM, this evening.
A quick look (Friday morning 8th March 2024) to moderately high levels of demand forecast for SA in heatwave conditions this long (Adelaide Cup Day) weekend.
We've already witnessed four price spikes this afternoon as demand in NSW is approaching its expected peak. P5 forecasts are currently projects prices to remain at very elevated levels for the time being.
Geoff Eldridge provides a list of some the key records that were broken in the NEM yesterday, thanks particularly to high demand coming from Victoria.
A short early-afternoon article about expectations for NSW on Monday 5th February 2024.
As Saturday evening (27th Jan 2024), at 17:45 QLD 'Market Demand' reaches 10,210MW ... and volatility starts.
A late morning look at AEMO's forecasts for Saturday evening 27th January 2024.