A quick note today to give you a head’s up on what’s been happening.
See the following snapshot from NEM-Watch v8:
As you can see:
1) Demand in NSW is relatively high (due to high temperatures) with reference to the all time minimum and maximum dispatch demand targets shown in the legend.
2) A tight supply/demand balance in NSW has meant that imports have been required from both QLD and VIC.
3) What appears to have been a drop in available generation capacity of 500MW in the NSW region (perhaps a unit trip) would not have helped the situation.
Hence prices have risen to the Market Price Cap (MPC) of $10,000/MWh
As can be seen in the following two charts of interconnector flows (generated with a single-click from NEM-Watch), we see that sudden changes in the import constraint limit (for QNI) and export constraint limit (for VIC-NSW) have been part of the issue (with the price spread across the interconnector shown, in each chart, in the grey bars):