AEMO publishes MN116654 for ‘forecast LOR2’ in NSW for Sunday evening 19th May 2024

I’ve noted (with respect to ‘Vales Point unit 6 trips offline on Friday 17th May 2024’) that there’s been no change to the forecast aggregate Available Generation in NSW for Monday morning at the time of the 17:10 snapshot of ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view in that article.

However what has happened is that the AEMO has published Market Notice 116654 talking about ‘forecast LOR2’ for NSW on Sunday evening 19th May 2024:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     17/05/2024     17:02:14

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Notice ID               :         116654
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         17/05/2024
External Reference      :         STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 19/05/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following periods:

From 1630 hrs to 2200 hrs 19/05/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1204 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1168 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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Using the same ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view (filtered to Available Generation in NSW over the ST PASA timeframe), but panning back to look at Sunday evening 19th May 2024, we can see a drop in available generation of ~200MW (i.e. about the size as what VP6 has been producing) as follows:

Flipping to look at Wind UIGF for NSW and zooming out a little to see more rows (as the numbers are smaller, so don’t disappear) we see that an update between 09:00 and 10:00 this morning produced different outcomes:

1)  Forecast for wind capability Sunday evening 19th May grew; whilst

2)  Forecast for wind capability Monday morning 20th May deteriorated.

Let’s see what unfolds…