AEMO publishes GSOO 2024 … media headlines about Gas Shortages
On Thursday 21st March 2024, the AEMO released the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) for 2024 – warning of potential gas supply shortfalls as early as Winter 2025.
forecast tight supply-demand balance
The forecast LOR2 is gone, but forecasts for spicy prices remain for NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024
It’s early afternoon so here’s a quick look at forecasts for NSW on Thursday evening 29th Feb 2024.
Still a forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024, but not as severe as earlier forecasts
AEMO current forecasts (at early afternoon Wed 28th Feb) still show a tight supply-demand balance in NSW for Thu 29th Feb afternoon/evening, but not as severe.
The forecast LOR2 for NSW on Thursday 29th February 2024 grows more extreme…
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.
Stubborn forecasts for LOR2 (low reserve condition) for NSW for Thursday evening 29th February 2024
A Tuesday morning article, looking ahead to forecasts of LOR2 (tight supply-demand balance) for NSW on Thursday evening 29th February 2024
QLD ‘Market Demand’ accelerating past 9,200MW … forecast (at 14:25) to reach 10,523MW at 17:30
An update from ~14:30 Monday 22nd Jan 2024 looking ahead to this evening in QLD.
At 10:22, AEMO forecasts possible LOR2 (low reserve condition) for QLD for Monday evening 22nd Jan 2024
Mon 22nd Jan at 10:22 the AEMO has informed the market of possible LOR2 low reserve condition in QLD.
Two coal units to watch, in QLD over coming days – in relation to forecast tight supply-demand on Monday 22nd January 2024
This morning (in the article ‘Looking forward, to Monday 22nd January 2024 in Queensland’) I wrote about the forecast LOR2 condition that the AEMO was warning about at the time – looking ahead to Monday 22nd January 2024. (A) …
‘Market Demand’ in Queensland peaks at 9,790MW on Thursday 18th January 2024 … Monday 22nd Jan *might* see a record?
A short summation of where demand landed in QLD on Thursday evening 18th January 2024.
A preview of Thursday evening 18th Jan 2024 in Queensland … and also flagging Fri 19th and Mon 22nd
A second article looking at forecast tight supply-demand balance in Queensland on Thursday 18th Jan 2024.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ over 11,000MW – and forecast evening demand warming back towards 13,000MW
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
Low reserves projected post Eraring closure… and earlier?
The results of the recent MTPASA (Medium-Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy), published on 17 October 2023, led a declaration of low reserve conditions in Market Notice 110284.
Possible coal supply issues at Mt Piper coal-fired power station to last until the end of 2023?
A short note to echo EnergyAustralia’s warnings (reported in the Australian) about possible coal supply issues for Mt Piper power station.
NSW Government to explore option for (relatively short) extension to operations at Eraring Power Station … amongst other initiatives
Yesterday, the NSW Government released both the Marsden Jacobs report (NSW Electricity Supply and Reliability Check Up) and the Government’s Response.
The 2023 ESOO again prompts the question … ‘what’s the contingency plan’?
The 2023 ESOO contains some some reporting (and data) about one particular contingency plan … delaying retirement of existing thermal generators (with Eraring a case in point).
Here’s 7 Observations that jumped out to me in a first skim of the 2023 ESOO
Apart from a distraction early this morning, I’ve invested some hours today in review of the 2023 ESOO. Here’s 7 initial observations that jumped out at me.
With the 2023 ESOO report, different views about which USE figure should the AEMO have led with?
Here’s my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy … USE) in the 2023 ESOO.