NSW morning price spike (14th July 2021) – out of the blue


A short note just now – as one I might refer back to later (time permitting).

Our SMS alerts facility (available in NEMwatch, in deSide, and in ez2view) triggered three alerts this morning for NSW dispatch prices being up at the Market Price Cap (increased to $15,100/MWh for the 2021-22 financial year).

2021-07-14-at-09-05-SMSalerts-NSWspike

Using the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view this afternoon and Time-Travelling back to the 08:55 dispatch interval (i.e. when the first spike occurred) we see that this price spike occurred out of the blue:

2021-07-14-at-08-55-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-NSW-firstspike

Here’s how the dispatch interval was captured in an email alert triggered by a display copy of NEMwatch v10 we have running 24x7x365 for occasions like this:

2021-07-14-at-08-55-NEMwatch-NSWspike

I’ve highlighted three things:

1)  The price spike well away from more ‘normal’ prices in QLD and VIC – because of constrained flows in from those neighbouring regions;

2)  An IRPM down at 13% for the NSW ‘Economic Island’ so formed by those interconnection constraints … and an ‘Actual LOR1’ Low Reserve Condition notice published by AEMO at 08:12 (so ~38 minutes before the spike); and

3)  A solid block of green (representing wind production right across the NEM), but only the beginnings of the contribution from solar at this time in comparative terms.

 

Will delve further in another article in future as this was an interesting one – if time permits.

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

4 Comments on "NSW morning price spike (14th July 2021) – out of the blue"

  1. Gullen Range, Collector, Biala, and Crookwell 2 wind farms all dove to zero at the start of the price spike. So did Gullen Solar Farm. A total of about 300 MW whilst there was a NEGRES constraint on the VIC-NSW interconnector. Nearby wind farms Cullerin Range and Gunning did not change their output. The DUIDs that went off line are all on a pair of 330 kV Transgrid transmission lines to/from Yass BSP. Maybe something happened at Yass BSP?

  2. Same thing just happened again at 18:00 on Thursday 16 July, only this time the price spike happened in NSW and also in QLD. Again those same windfarms went to zero watts.

  3. …and another huge swing on the VIC-NSW interconnector

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