A very quick article on Sunday 4th February 2024 as afternoon turns into evening with a snapshot from NEMwatch for the 17:45 dispatch interval (NEM time):
With respect to the numbered annotations on the image:
1) First and foremost (given last Thursday I’d written “NEM-wide demand has been quite low through summer 2023-24 (at least to date)”, looking specifically at peak demand – and notwithstanding Allan saw a different conclusion when looking at average demand) it’s worth starting by noting that:
(a) The NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ has climbed to 32,774MW … which would easily be the highest point achieved this far over summer;
(b) And, at this point, it looks set to continue growing quickly
2) We see that the demand in all three larger regions is out of the ‘green zone’, with:
(a) QLD (at 9,247MW) is in the ‘yellow zone’ but about 1,800MW below the new all-time maximum set on 22nd January 2024;
(b) NSW (at 12,274MW) is also in its ‘yellow zone’, which is ~2,200MW below its all-time maximum; whilst
(c) VIC (at 7,845MW) has not moved as far above the ‘green zone’ as the other two regions.
3) With solar now in accelerating decline into the evening, and temperatures holding up as we see on the map, it’s an open question whether ‘Market Demand’ will climb further into the evening…
4) Notable, at this point, is that there’s not been any price spikes to this point (i.e. above $300/MWh).
Note that this peak was not ‘out of the blue’, as:
1) I’d noted yesterday afternoon (Sat 3rd Feb) that AEMO’s ‘Forecast NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ at ~32,250MW on Sunday 4th February 2024’;
2) Indeed, on Friday morning 2nd Feb I’d also noted ‘Current AEMO forecasts point to higher NEM-wide demand on Sunday 4th February 2024’.
Nothing more in this article.
PS1 – highest point over Sunday evening, 4th Feb 2024
After the fact, we note that the highest point for NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ was 32,938MW at 18:15.
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