Current AEMO forecasts point to higher NEM-wide demand on Sunday 4th February 2024

Yesterday evening we noted that ‘NEM-wide demand has been quite low through summer 2023-24 (at least to date)’.

So it’s worth a follow-on noting these 3 x snippets of data related to what might unfold on Sunday 4th February 2024:

 

(A)  AEMO temperature alerts

This morning the AEMO published Market Notice 114148 with respect to up-coming ’Local Temperature Alerts’, including for Sunday 4th February 2024:

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MARKET NOTICE
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 From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     02/02/2024     10:30:00

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 Notice ID               :         114148
Notice Type ID          :         GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date              :         02/02/2024
External Reference      :         NEM Local Temperature Alerts for NSW, SA, VIC from 02 Feb 2024 to 06 Feb 2024

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 Reason :

 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

 AEMO’s weather service provider has issued forecast temperatures equal to or greater than the NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels for listed weather stations below.

 NSW
Mudgee Ap (39+ Deg C): 4th Feb
Yass (39+ Deg C): 4th Feb

SA
Clare High School (39+ Deg C): 4th Feb
Port Augusta Ap (39+ Deg C): 3rd Feb, 4th Feb

VIC
Mildura Ap (39+ Deg C): 4th Feb

The NEM Local Temperature Alert Levels are:

Launceston Ti Tree Bend: 33 Deg C, Dalby Airport: 37 Deg C, for all other selected weather stations: 39 Deg C.

AEMO requests Market Participants to:

1. review the weather forecast in the local area where their generating units / MNSP converter stations are located and,

2. if required, update the available capacity in their dispatch offers or availability submissions consistent with the forecast temperatures.

Further information is available at:

https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/projected-assessment-of-system-adequacy/nem-local-temperature-alerts

AEMO Operations Planning

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END OF REPORT
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(B)  Weatherzone article

We’d noticed earlier that (on Tue 30th Jan 2024), Anthony Sharwood had written ‘Victoria set for Sunday scorcher’:

 

(C)  AEMO demand projections

Third artefact here is a window from ez2view at the 10:45 dispatch interval on Friday 2nd February 2024 that’s a collation of 5 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets that show forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ across both P30 predispatch and ST PASA data sets:

With this image we show:

1)  At the top, a chart looking back ~7 days and forward ~7 days and focused on NEM-wide demand (i.e. choosing the ‘Market Demand’ metric):

(a)  Highlighting the highest point for demand so far this summer (on Monday 29th January 2024, as noted here);

(b)  But also that the current forecasts (as at the forecast run for 10:00 NEM time Friday 2nd Feb 2024) suggest that …

i.  demand on Sunday might be ~1,000MW higher than on Monday 29th January.

ii.  thus being new ‘highest this summer’

iii. though (even if it were at that level) it would still be ~4,000MW below the all-time maximum.

2)  Underneath, in grid view, are views of each of the mainland regions (apologies for space reasons leaving off TAS):

(a)  With ‘autoscale’ ticked in all cases, so the red colour translates to the highest demand point seen in that 14-day window – either history or forecast;

(b)  But for broader context I have annotated with the all-time maximum for SA, VIC and NSW … trusting that noone will forget the massive record set in QLD on Monday 22nd January … at 11,036MW

 

Let’s see what unfolds…