In December 2023, one of our clients* asked us whether we’d been keeping particular watch on the major outages that were planned by EnergyAustralia in response to the poor performance of the units seen through 2022 (one factor contributing to the 2022 Energy Crisis).
* they asked this during their briefing session for GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q3, which was delivered by us at Global-Roam Pty Ltd (publishers of WattClarity) and our collaborative partners on those analytical assignments, Greenview Strategic Consulting.
(A) Background
It was way back (on 28th February 2023) that we posted the article ‘A quick look at EnergyAustralia’s outage plans for Yallourn Power Station’ .
However our answer to client’s question in December 2023 was that we’d not really been looking, since noting EnergyAustralia (and CLP’s) plans in that February article.
(B) Current outage schedule
Given it’s the start of 2024, and that two of these planned outages are still to be performed, I thought it would be useful to start of with this quick summary of the current status:
| Unit |
When is this Major Rectification outage scheduled to be performed? |
Performance |
|---|---|---|
|
YWPS1 |
Taking a look at the ‘MT PASA DUID Availability’ widget in ez2view today, focusing on Unit 1, we see that the unit has a major outage planned: (a) Starting 15th March 2024 (b) running 66 days (c) through until 20th May 2024.
We’ll aim to keep an eye on this outage, and update readers here about its progress. |
Referencing Appendix 5 (focused on the coal units) of GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q3), we see: (a) the performance of YWPS1 over the focused 12 month period (i.e. Q4 2022 to Q3 2023) has featured a significant number of forced outages (shown in red) (b) but, conversely, no planned outages (which would have appeared in grey):
So we’ll need to wait until the end of May 2024 to start watching for any improvement in performance with this unit. |
|
YWPS2 |
Using the same ez2view widget and clicking onto the next unit, we see only shorter outages planned into the next three years: (a) with the next one starting 19th April 2024; (b) but noting that these would not be long enough to complete major outage works.
|
It turns out (as seen in the snapshot from the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view) that the ‘Major Rectification’ outage for this unit was already conducted: (a) From 2nd Nov 2023; (b) To 19th Dec 2023 (c) Only 47 days … so shorter than for other units. … but that the unit subsequently came back offline shortly afterwards due to what appears to be ‘ID fan motor issue’.
So that was bit of a hiccup, back from a major ‘fix up the performance of the unit’ outage. However as Angela Macdonald-Smith noted in today’s article in the AFR (which references earlier WattClarity articles about the highs and lows of demand in the past week): ‘EnergyAustralia, which ramps down its Yallourn coal generator in the Latrobe Valley during periods of oversupply to minimise the hit from negative prices, elected to delay the restart of one unit there after scheduled maintenance because of the low demand, a spokesman said.’ We can see this in the ‘Generator Outages’ widget from in ez2view here, with the Unit State of ‘Inactive Reserve’ and a 2-day recall time:
So we’ll watch with interest when the unit starts back up as summer kicks into swing. |
|
YWPS3 |
Taking a look at Unit 3 via the ‘MT PASA DUID Availability’ widget in ez2view today, we see that the unit only has Minor outages currently scheduled in the coming 3 years:
The next one of these is currently slated to start on 16th February 2024. |
Flipping back to Appendix 5 (focused on the coal units) of GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q3), we see that much of Q3 2023 saw YWPS3 down for a longer planned outage:
This outage: (a) Began 25th Aug 2023 (b) Ended 25th Oct 2023 (so well into Q4 2023) (c) So spanning 61 days. Since that time, we’ve seen the unit come offline three times: (a) On 15th November 2023 … perhaps a feed pump issue (b) On 28th November 2023 briefly … possibly a feed pump issue (c) On 21st December 2023 … due to a tube leak. … as seen in the snapshot from the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view:
So we’ll need to watch further into the future, to compare ‘before rectification outage’ with ‘after rectification outage’.
|
|
YWPS4 |
Taking a look at the ‘MT PASA DUID Availability’ widget in ez2view today, focusing on Unit 1, we see that the unit has a major outage planned: (a) Starting 24th August 2024 (b) running 55 days (c) through until 19th October 2024.
We’ll aim to keep an eye on this outage, and update readers here about its progress.
|
Flipping back to Appendix 5 (focused on the coal units) of GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q3), we see that the 12-month period shown (Q4 2022 to Q3 2023) contained better performance for YWPS4 than was the case for YWPS1:
I would imagine that EnergyAustralia (and CLP as shareholder) still expects performance to be better following the upcoming major outage.
|
This is something we’ll refer back to and update (with follow-on articles) later in the year…
Sorry but this outage schedule looks like nothing more than minimum spend to keep a 1970’s power station struggling along – hardly a significant recapitalization which is what would be needed were the plant to be campaigned in the longer term. A read of the annual report says it all. Red ink in Australia and the second para on page 3 says it all. Major investments will be in “flexible plant” not old colliers. Hardly surprising. The asset managers are doing exactly what they should be doing – spend nothing they don’t need to on an old plant gliding to retirement. Keep it safe and sort of reliable – the trick is to get the balance right between maintenance spend and losses in the wholesale market from unreliability. Expect forced outage rates to go up the closer they get to retirement. And they won’t be the only owners juggling these balls in the air. Best hope they don’t all drop them at the same time.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Andy, and apologies for any confusion inadvertently caused.
The above line of thinking followed what’s noted on p3 of the CLP report, specifically:
… so will watch with interest to see the extent to which operational performance at Yallourn is restored.