In February David Leitch predicted batteries would eat coal volumes, not just price. Here he checks that call against the pipeline: 19 GW and 55 GWh coming, and up to 6 GW of coal displaced.
Four weeks ago we asked two questions 'where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from (in just 2 years) to replace all that Energy that Yallourn has been producing this winter?'. Here's the start of an answer to that question, though still incomplete...
It’s quite a topical question (that we’ve contributed to recently), so I thought I would have a look at what is noted within the ESOO about the looming closure of Yallourn.
via 'Forecast Convergence' widget, we see (to date) consistent reporting to the AEMO of envisaged closure of all 4 x units at Yallourn being 1st July 2028.
Given the discussions about looming Yallourn closure, and the implications of this, worth noting a change in the latest weekly MT PASA run.
For a coincidence of several different reasons, here's a quick initial overview of how Yallourn Power Station has been performing over time, and particularly in Winter 2026 ytd.
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.
In this follow-on to his earlier analysis, David Leitch argues that as large-scale batteries enter the NSW market, it’s lost volumes rather than lower prices that could slash coal generators’ spot profits by 30 to 40%.
David Leitch reflects on how coal generators have adapted to a changing NEM, drawing on time-of-day profiles, and data from our GSD, and explains why — despite that flexibility — the underlying economics are becoming increasingly fragile as batteries reshape the evening peak.
A summary of today’s announcement from Origin Energy, along with an overview of the subsequent media coverage, confirming Eraring’s operation through to 2029.
Paul Bandarian and David Leitch from ITK Services share modelling results for a post-coal NEM, arguing today’s electricity prices can be maintained if batteries become the dominant price-forming technology and solar is structurally supported.
We thought it might be useful to point directly to the 61-page report ‘Managing the Transition to Renewable Energy’ by the Victorian Auditor-General.
Following media reporting from Monday about 'blackouts' and 'Eraring closure', today (Wednesday 3rd December) there's a media report about 'blackouts' and 'Yallourn closure'
At 13:55 on Tuesday 2nd December 2025, the AEMO published MN131337 as an update earlier MT PASA updates (continuing to forecast Low Reserve Condition for NSW for periods between August 2027 to November 2027).
I’ve been away for the past week and am not back at work yet, but seeing the headline ‘AEMO warns of NSW blackouts if Eraring closes in 2027’ by Angela MacDonald-Smith in the AFR on 1st Dec 2025 diverted my attention.
On Friday afternoon we asked the question ‘What’s up with Waratah BESS (unplanned outage till 3rd May 2026)?’. It was great to see (on Monday evening) Angela MacDonald-Smith answer some of these questions in the AFR, and then a media update from Akaysha Energy.
With the Queensland state government’s new energy roadmap due out tomorrow, Greg Elkins highlights how distorted signals and state interventions expose a new NEM failure.
Worth copying in here AEMO's Market Notice 129413 published late Friday afternoon 3rd October 2025 pertaining to the coming two-year period - because of some changes and other notes.
I alluded to the following comments in Wednesday’s article about the possible early closure of Gladstone Power Station … though we did not have time to note them at the time. We were not at the ‘Energy Nation 2025’ conference on Wednesday 24th September 2025...
A very short article here from us today to point readers here to the ABC News article ‘Rio Tinto's Gladstone coal-fired power station could be retired early’ from earlier today