Currently forecast LOR2 for South Australia for Wednesday 10th May 2023

There’s been a succession of forecasts for possible LOR2 Low Reserve Condition periods for Wednesday morning and evening periods this week in South Australia.  The latest data was in Market Notice 107787 published at 12:49 today:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     08/05/2023     12:49:08

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Notice ID               :         107787
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         08/05/2023
External Reference      :         STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the SA Region on 10/05/2023

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the SA region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 107785 has been updated at 1200 hrs 08/05/2023 to the following:

[1.] From 0830 hrs 10/05/2023 to 0900 hrs 10/05/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 390 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 364 MW.

[2.] From 1700 hrs 10/05/2023 to 1800 hrs 10/05/2023.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 471 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 405 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
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(A)  ‘Forecast Convergence’ view

Here’s a collage of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view to highlight some of the moving pieces:

Remembering that the strength of this widget is that it allows the user to ‘look up a vertical’ to see ‘that other dimension of time’ and hence see how successive forecasts are converging on the eventual ‘Actuals’ (which in this case are highlighted for Wednesday morning and evening periods), we see:

1)  The forecast LOR2 condition for Wednesday are quite sticky at present;

2)  Nothing ‘Market Demand’ is only going to be quite modest in those periods;

3)  But forecast Wind and Solar capability is that it will be quite low for morning and (especially!) evening periods;

4)  Hence the forecast ‘Surplus’ is that SA will be negative … i.e. heavily reliant on imports.

(B)  Interconnectors limited

Flipping to what’s happening in the market currently via NEMwatch at 13:15 we see that the Murraylink interconnector is currently out of service:

(B1)  Murraylink offline

With a few clicks through hyperlinks within ez2view  we see that the Murraylink outage (formulated in the ‘I-MURRAYLINK’ constraint set, and seen in the ‘Constraint Set Details’ widget) is currently scheduled to continue through until Friday afternoon 12th May:

(B2)  Heywood limited

One of our readers has quickly pointed out Heywood will also be limited as well during the period.

Could be an ‘interesting’ week … especially Wednesday.