The absence of the ‘duck curve’ on Monday 18th May 2026 stands out, in recent history
Yesterday's low VRE conditions delivered a distinctly different market outcome (Mon 18th May 2026) than seen in the prior 8 days.
low solar production
A first look into the LOR3 (a.k.a. ‘load shedding’) forecast for NSW on Monday 16th December 2024
With AEMO forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW for periods of time on Monday 16th December 2024, in this WattClarity article we take a first look. More to come *as time permits* (and as situations change, etc...).
Taking a look inside South Australia’s lengthy run of volatility on Monday 23rd September 2024 (Part 2 of a Case Study)
There was an ‘Evening blast of spot price volatility in South Australia on Monday 23rd September 2024’ ... roughly 6 weeks ago. Today, for several reasons, we start to take a closer look.
Forecast tight supply-demand balance (i.e. LOR2) for QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024
Worth a short note, given the alerts from ez2view have continued to buzz in recent days, as the AEMO continues to update forecast LOR2 warnings for both QLD and NSW regions for Thursday 7th November 2024.
Evening burst of volatility across the NEM on Monday 5th August 2024
A slightly longer summary (compared to this morning's) of some evening volatility (across the NEM) on Monday evening 5th August 2024.
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about 'another challenging week' for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 - the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
Brief Case Study of low aggregate VRE (Wind + Large Solar) on Saturday 13th April 2024 … Part 1?
Taking a quick look at the dispatch interval through this period of low aggregate wind harvest that also saw lowest aggregate VRE (Wind + Large Solar).
Recapping aggregate solar yield in Queensland’s ‘wet week’ prior to Easter 2024
A quick look back at the period before easter 2024, which was forecast to be a wet week in QLD ... looking particularly at solar yield.
A quick summary of aggregate yield from Large Solar on Tuesday 28th November 2023
A quick look back at Tuesday 28th November 2023, a day of lowest Large Solar yield through 2023 Q4.
Case Study (Part 2) of Low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.
Case Study (part 1) of low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Mon 3rd and Tue 4th July 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
Mid-afternoon prices elevated with modest wind and modest solar
A quick look at elevated prices mid afternoon on Monday 3rd July 2023.
Currently forecast LOR2 for South Australia for Wednesday 10th May 2023
A first look at a forecast for tight supply-demand conditions for South Australia on Wednesday 10th May 2023.
*Was* solar production disappointingly low through (parts of) Q2 2022 … and, if so, why?
It's taken longer than expected - but today I've posted this article that goes some way to answering the question 'to what extent was solar production disappointing through periods of Q2 2022?'
Widespread cloud cover across QLD dampens solar production on Friday 2nd September 2022 … and broader
In this article we take a quick look at how today's widespread cloud cover is affecting solar production across QLD.
Actual LOR1 and $15,500/MWh in the QLD region on a cold/dreary Monday evening 4th July 2022
A quick article Monday evening about volatility in QLD.
Cloud cover and cold temperatures spark high prices in QLD on Monday morning 4th July 2022
A quick look into today's high prices in QLD, and some of the contributing factors.
Seasons of low wind and solar output will influence the shape of the NEM
Geoff Bongers, Nathan Bongers and Andy Boston have prepared this guest authored article following on from their recently published paper about the characterisation and mitigation of renewable droughts in the NEM.
Mainland region price spikes on Tuesday 6th July 2021
A short note about the start of the evening price spikes on Tuesday 6th July 2021 (these are ongoing, at the time this was posted).
Rainfall in northern Queensland contributes to price spike at 15:55 on Tuesday 20th April 2021
In between other jobs today, we've taken a look at why the price spiked yesterday (Tue 20th April) in QLD ... at an earlier time than we had become accustomed to seeing it occur in recent months.