Following our look into the amount of RERT dispatched for the demand peak on 3 February 2023 and acknowledgement of how demand forecasting continues to be increasingly weather-dependent, we note that the estimated payments (and volumes for RERT activation) have been published by AEMO:
The headline for many readers of the one-page release will be the total cost: $1,475,000.
We suspect this may stir up some who argue the activation (and pre-activation) of RERT on the day as unnecessary, when viewed with 20-20 hindsight that Market Demand was roughly 1000 MW lower than the highest forecast had been.
Perhaps secondary to the total is the result that the dispatch energy averaged $18,000 per MWh which is a touch higher than the market price cap of $15,500 per MWh.
Finally, we note the release indicates the market operator evaluated the supply scarcity outlook in line with its Supply Scarcity Procedure. This includes consideration of the length of dispatch or activation times, among a wider range of factors, when making the call to use RERT.
We anticipate further details will be released via an event report in due course.
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