On Sunday 16th October 2022 we saw a new low-point for Operational Demand in the South Australian Region of the NEM as the ‘declining demand’ trend continues. The AEMO noted this new low point in this tweet the following day (yesterday, Monday 17th October 2022):
On this occasion we did not note anything about this here on WattClarity … being more focused on trying to work out a Sequence of Events in Tasmania from Friday 14th October.
The rise, and rise, of rooftop solar has been widely acclaimed as one of the success stories of the Australian flavour of this energy transition, thus far. As illustrated in the image above, we’re fast approaching the more challenging aspects of it where there will be an increasing clash between:
Service #1 – ‘Anytime/Anywhere Energy’, which we wrote about in the GRC2018 and then explored further in GenInsights21; and
Service #2 – the residual ‘Keeping the lights on Services’ that are increasingly being squeezed out by the route we’ve chosen to take on this path.
That’s why Market Notice 102367, which the AEMO has published Tuesday evening at 20:27 (NEM Time) is of particular interest – when it says there is an ‘elevated risk of contingent disconnection of Distributed PV’ tomorrow. You can read more here:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 18/10/2022 20:27:29
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Notice ID : 102367
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 18/10/2022
External Reference : DPV Contingency 1 (DPVC1) in the SA Region on 19/10/2022
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO has detected there is an elevated risk of the contingent disconnection of Distributed PV (DPV) which, together with the risk of loss of scheduled generation, exceeds secure thresholds in the South Australia region from 1030 hrs 19/10/2022 to 1400 hrs 19/10/2022.
Maximum DPV generation forecast by the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System 2 (ASEFS2) is 1307 MW at 1230 hrs and the secure ASEFS2 generation limit for the forecast operating conditions is 1181 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
An insufficient market response may require AEMO to take action or intervene to maintain power system security in South Australia. This may result in action such as the recall of planned outages, direction of scheduled generation, curtailment of non-scheduled wind generation, and an instruction to maintain DPV generation below a secure DPV generation threshold.
AEMO estimates the latest time at which it may need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 0730 hrs on 19/10/2022.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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I could not recall seeing a market notice like it at any point in the past – so searched the ‘Market Notice’ widget in ez2view going back many years, and this is the only reference to ‘DPV’ that I could find:
Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
PS1 at ~07:42 on Wednesday 19th October 2022
As promised by the AEMO, they have published Market Notice 102375 at 07:36 this morning to say:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 19/10/2022 07:36:09
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 102375
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 19/10/2022
External Reference : Distributed PV Contingency 2 (DPVC2) in the SA Region on 19/10/2022.
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO has taken action to maintain power system security in South Australia at 0730 hrs 19/10/2022 due to a forecast Distributed PV Contingency (DPVC) condition.
AEMO actions may include the recall of planned outages, a direction and/or instruction to scheduled and non-scheduled generation, and/or an instruction to maintain DPV generation below a secure DPV generation threshold.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘
We may (or may not) be able to learn more about what specific actions have been taken.
PS2 at ~10:47 on Wednesday 19th October 2022
Later in the day, the AEMO published Market Notice 102381 that cancelled these conditions:
——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 19/10/2022 10:46:00
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 102381
Notice Type ID : GENERAL NOTICE
Notice Type Description : Subjects not covered in specific notices
Issue Date : 19/10/2022
External Reference : Cancellation of Distributed PV Contingency 2 (DPVC2) [and Distributed PV Contingency 1 (DPVC1)] in the SA region on 19/10/2022
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Cancellation – DPVC2 and DPVC1 – SA Region
Refer Market Notices 102375 for DPVC2 and 102367 for DPVC1
The DPVC2 condition for 19/10/2022 and all associated directions and instructions are cancelled from 1025 hrs 19/10/2022
The DPVC1 condition for 19/10/2022 is cancelled at 1025 hrs 19/10/2022
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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More explanation and exploration might follow in a subsequent article…
The reason for the “plug being pulled on curtailment” (double negative!) is that a prior outage on the Heywood interconnector to Victoria was completed ahead of schedule at 1025 (AEMO Market Notice 102382). This outage was the underlying cause for heightened security risk levels in SA that prompted AEMO to consider PV curtailment.