From 17:10 this evening the price jumped above $1,000/MWh in the QLD region again, after a period during daylight hours where it had been quite low on occasions (that discordant symphony again).

Here’s the initial run of SMS alerts for context:

Here’s the snapshot from NEMwatch at 17:30 with the dispatch price at $13,200/MWh:

… and finally, here’s Market Notice 96918 published by AEMO at 17:24 for a forecast LOR1 beginning at 17:30 this evening (i.e. 6 minutes after publication of the Market Notice):

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     10/06/2022     17:24:11

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         96918
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         10/06/2022
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the QLD Region on 10/06/2022

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:

[1.] From 1730 hrs 10/06/2022 to 1800 hrs 10/06/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 944 MW.

The minimum capacity reserve available is 898 MW.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

————————————–

PS1 around 18:30 Friday evening

Worth updating this article with a snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:30 dispatch interval in NEMwatch :

With respect to the numbers added:

1)  We see the IRPM is down to a measly 6% for the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ formed because of constraints on the QNI and DLINK interconnectors:

(a)  Available generation of 8,425 MW and net ‘Market Demand’ of 7,927 MW

(b)  That leaves only 498 MW of spare capacity for the 18:30 dispatch interval.

2)  The AEMO has reflected this with Market Notice 96921 published at 18:21 noting an ‘Actual LOR2’ situation exists, and is forecast to last until 19:00

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     10/06/2022     18:21:22

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         96921
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         10/06/2022
External Reference      :         Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 10/06/2022

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD region – 10/06/2022

An Actual LOR2 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region from 1800 hrs.

The Actual LOR2 condition is forecast to exist until 1900 hrs.

The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 524 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 311 MW.

AEMO is seeking an immediate market response.

An insufficient market response may require AEMO to implement an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

3)  Note that the AEMO calculated forecast ‘minimum capacity reserve’ of 311MW is even lower than the 498MW shown above in NEMwatch for the 18:30 dispatch interval:

(a)  Slightly different methodologies (and the AEMO number was forecast in advance)

(b)  However the main message is that things are quite tight!

Another evening to hold onto your hats…