On Monday I posted this ‘discussion about electricity prices – following the Callide C4 Catastrophe’, and noted that prices had been elevated in QLD and NSW moreso than elsewhere.
This pattern has continued, with prices spiking on Tuesday evening and again this evening (Wednesday 9th June). First spike was today at 17:10, when QLD jostled NSW for a higher price in a pre-SOO electricity market tussle.
Here’s a later snapshot from 17:40 from our NEMwatch v10 entry-level dashboard:
On the image I highlighted three points:
1) It’s not 24 hours past, yet, and the spot prices is up in QLD again, near the Market Price Cap (and this evening up also for NSW);
2) At the 17:40 dispatch interval, the NEMwatch alert had triggered for an IRPM for the QLD+NSW ‘Economic Island’ being down at 12% … with only 2,294MW of spare supply capacity available of any type to meet the expected continued increase in demand over the next hour or so.
3) I’ve also noted that the NSW Scheduled Demand shown in NEMwatch was up at 12,233MW … well into the Yellow Range based on historical range of incidence between blue (low points in NEM history) and red (highest points in NEM history). That’s in part because of the evening peaks more pronounced in winter, but also driven by the colder temperatures being experienced (e.g. first snowfall for the season today in many parts of NSW).
(a) Referencing yesterday’s article, demand was forecast to be higher still tomorrow evening in NSW.
(b) Powering up ‘Forecast Convergence’ in ez2view again, that is still forecast to be the case.
Looks like evening volatility will be with us for a while yet…