Tight supply/demand forecast for NSW on Thursday 10th June 2021


In line with the cold front that’s forecast to sweep across Australia this week, electricity consumption levels are forecast to climb – as shown in this 14-day trend from the ez2view Trends Engine:

2021-06-08-at-19-53-ez2view-Trend-NSW-14day

(for those with a licence, you can open your own copy here).

With the increase in demand  comes a forecast LOR2 (Low Reserve Condition) warning for NSW this Thursday 10th June.  The AEMO communicated this at 18:40:12 on Tuesday evening 8th June in Market Notice 86790:

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         86790
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         08/06/2021
External Reference      :         STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 10/06/2021

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the NSW region for the following period[s]:

[1.] From 1730 hrs 10/06/2021 to 1830 hrs 10/06/2021
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1568 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1516 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

Now, these Market Notices have been reasonably common in recent weeks (with units out on maintenance).

What’s much less common has been the Market Notice that followed this one ~3 minutes later, at 18:43:26 (which follows, I believe, from the ‘not yet estimated’ part of the Notice above):

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         86791
Notice Type ID          :         RECALL GEN CAPACITY
Notice Type Description :         Recall Gen Capacity
Issue Date              :         08/06/2021
External Reference      :         Request for Generator Recall Information for the period for 10/06/2021 for NSW Region

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice 86790

Please provide Generator Recall Information for 10/06/2021 by 1700 hrs on 09/06/2021 via the Generator Recall communication system, in accordance with  clause 4.8.5A of the National Electricity Rules.

SO_OP_3719 Procedure for Submitting Generator Outage Recall Information is available at:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/security_and_reliability/power_system_ops/procedures/so_op_3719-procedure-for-submitting-recall-information-scheduled-generator-outages.pdf

Procedure on how to use Generator Recall in the EMMS Markets Portal is available at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/IT-Systems-and-Change/2018/Guide-to-Generator-Recall-Plans.pdf

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

Thursday evening looks set to see, at the very least, some (more) price volatility.

Indeed, quickly opening up the Forecast Convergence widget in ez2view v9 (an early release we’re testing) shows that the AEMO’s successive ST PASA forecasts for Operational Demand for Thursday evening have been progressively growing higher over the past couple days.

2021-06-08-at-20-00-ez2view-ForecastConvergence

Hence the Market Notice now!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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