Taking a brief (well, actually longer than intended) look into the various factors that delivered a price spike above $10,000/MWh on Thursday 31st January in NSW – and thinking through the implications for one particular Demand Response client, and for the broader market.
As part of the process of compilation of our Generator Report Card 2018, we’re delving into quite some detail into various aspects of generator bidding and re-bidding. Today I thought it might be useful to share some *very early and preliminary* observations that we’re starting to see when trending and categorising rebids.
AGL released its investor presentation yesterday – several people flagged the availability stats within the presentation (they knew we were looking at aspects of reliability for our Generator Report Card 2018). Hence I take a brief detour and have a quick look.
The surge in NEM spot prices since 2015, and related impacts on contract and retail prices, have been extensively discussed and analysed in many forums, from ACCC inquiries to Twitter. The underlying reasons for the rise are well understood and…
Some brief analysis, on the sidelines of our data gathering for the Generator Report Card 2018, looking at the changing incidence of Aggregate Absolute Off-Target for DUIDs across the NEM.
Data compilation of the Generator Report Card is underway, given we’ve stepped over into 2019. Here’s a summary insight about the nature of coverage of bound constraint equations across all units in the NEM.
Some conversations with new generation developers about their prospective developments in northern Queensland has prompted some analysis to help them understand the size of the addressable market for them.
Following from (what we have seen as) an increase in diversity of concerns (and claims) about different aspects of generator performance, we’re leveraging our extensive data set and capabilities to have a deeper look, leading to the publication of a Generator Report Card with data to 31st December 2018. We’d welcome input from those who wish to pre-order their copies now at an initial low rate.
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
A quick outline of what have been (in my view) the three key reasons why wholesale electricity prices in Queensland have risen, compared to 5 years ago.
A year on from my review of “remarkable” prices seen in Q2 2016, I return to the same analysis and update for Q2 2017. Outcomes are even more extreme…
The energy supply industry is now a case study of major disruption and this is causing chaos. We are now witnessing the simultaneous high prices in electricity and gas – importantly at the commodity level – not network driven this time – although that just changed with the AER loss – more petrol on the fire.
A belated link to the Finkel Review.
Generators used to consider the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) FCAS causers pays factors (CPF), used to allocate FCAS regulation costs across the market, as an obscure and unimportant technically challenging curiosity. Since 2014, the cost of FCAS regulation services for generators has increased from just under $5 million per year to greater than $60 million for 2016 and now has the attention of all of the generators, especially if their portfolio includes generation assets in regions with a lack of FCAS regulation providers and high prices such as South Australia.
The National Electricity Market (NEM) is designed to operate at 50 Hz. Frequency deviation occurs when generation and load are mismatched. It is important in a lightly meshed and long network such as the NEM to maintain tight frequency control and that frequency response is available throughout the network.
Some quick thoughts about Tesla’s promise to “fix South Australia’s power woes”. Which specific problem is Tesla promising to fix?
Because of (technical and commercial) interconnectedness in the National Electricity Market, the possibility of unintended consequences should be kept in mind
Electricity consumption in the National Electricity Market (NEM) increased by 0.8% in 2016, this is on top of a 1.1% increase in 2015. Queensland and NSW experienced increases in consumption with all other states experiencing a reduction.
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
Can you help me understand this apparent (and large) disconnect between words and actions in the GreenPower space?