Considerable uncertainty, with respect to what might unfold in NSW next Wednesday 22nd October 2025

There’s been a series of Market Notices from AEMO with respect to forecast LORx conditions for NSW next Wednesday 22nd October 2025, with the latest arriving at 02:30 (NEM time) this morning, Saturday 18th October 2025:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     18/10/2025     02:30:31

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Notice ID               :         129795
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         18/10/2025
External Reference      :         STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 22/10/2025

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 129785 has been updated at 0220 hrs 18/10/2025 to the following:

From 1530 hrs 22/10/2025 to 1800 hrs 22/10/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 700 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 496 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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So I thought I’d take a quick look with the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 08:25 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Saturday 18th October 2025:

Most often I use the ‘Grid View’ to enable one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to view ‘that other dimension of time’, but this time the ‘Chart’ view is more effective:

1)  for highlighting, in the top chart, the large degree of uncertainty in relation to what the ‘Market Demand’ might be through much of the day (next Wednesday 22nd October 2025)

2)  which makes it understandable why the forecast LORx conditions are changing so much.

(a)  noting that there might also be other uncertainties, but I have not checked.

(b)  and highlighting that the ST PASA run for 01:00 this morning forecast LOR3 (i.e. Load Shedding), but this was subsequently revised downwards.

So it really is ‘watch this space’…