At 08:46 (NEM time) on Monday 22nd June 2026 AEMO has published this follow-on MN 144315 noting 'AEMO is not declaring that an LOR3 forecast condition exists for this period'
At the 05:50 dispatch interval NEM time on Thursday 18th December 2025, the AEMO is forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) for NSW this evening.
Following a series of Market Notices from AEMO with respect to forecast LORx conditions for NSW next Wednesday 22nd October 2025, we take a first look.
An updated look at conditions in SA early next week, where a forecast LOR3 is now appearing for next Wednesday. We also look at the invocation schedule for constraint sets within the region.
A quick look into those LOR forecasts for South Australia next Monday, including a view of forecasts for market demand, wind and solar conditions, and generator outages.
Beginning Monday evening 23rd June 2025, the AEMO has forecast extremely tight supply-demand balance in South Australia (including possible load shedding) for Monday 30th June 2025.
At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.
We'll explore 'what's changed?' more in subsequent articles - but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme ...
Third article already this morning looking ahead to what’s forecast for Monday 16th December 2024 ... longer duration (and deeper) LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW + also LOR2 in Victoria.
With AEMO forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW for periods of time on Monday 16th December 2024, in this WattClarity article we take a first look. More to come *as time permits* (and as situations change, etc...).
"Surely not again so soon!?" ... was my first response at reading MN121734 published at 00:42 (NEM time) on Thursday 12th December 2024, forecasting LOR3 (a.k.a. load shedding) in NSW for Monday 16th December 2024.
The outlook for load shedding in NSW on the 27th of November 2024 remains a possibility, yet recent STPASA runs indicate some movement in a positive direction is ocurring.
Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD this week, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans
A very quick post to look at one of the several reasons we are seeing LOR3 and LOR2 forecasts for NSW and Queensland respectively next Wednesday (27 November). Previous posts from Paul (including this one) have looked at a range of factors, including weather /...
AEMO's MN120879 rates special mention, given the size of largest load shedding forecast for NSW on Wednesday afternoon/evening is above 1,000MW.
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why...
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled ... but only just.
AEMO's latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).