AEMO’s successive forecasts for NSW tomorrow paint a progressively WORSE picture

Posted by Paul McArdle Thursday, February 9 2017 Topic: Summer 2016-17 in the NEM

I noted quickly early this morning (snapshot from 06:10 NEM time) how AEMO was forecasting some load shedding to be required in NSW tomorrow.

Using the Forecast Convergence widget in our ez2view software, I have been progressively watching successive (half-hourly) updates today to AEMO’s forecasts for the demand curve for tomorrow, and the picture is not pretty.

Here’s a tabular view:

2017-02-09-at-13-45-ez2view-ForecastConvergenceNSW

When measured on the same basis, the all-time maximum experienced to-date was 14,579MW – however we see forecasts tomorrow exceeding this level, and up to 14,625MW.  We can see the same data in the following graphical view:

2017-02-09-at-13-45-ez2view-ForecastConvergenceNSW-chart

Hence it was not really a surprise to see how the AEMO updated their Market Notice at 12:57 today to indicate the possibility of load shedding tomorrow from 15:00 to 17:00 NEM time (or 16:00 to 18:00 Sydney daylight savings time):

2017-02-09-at-12-57-NEMWatch-MarketNotice

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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  1. Early Friday 10th February – forecasts for near-record electricity demand and load shedding in NSW | WattClarity

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