AEMO’s successive forecasts for NSW tomorrow paint a progressively WORSE picture

Posted by Paul McArdle Thursday, February 9 2017 Topic: Summer 2016-17 in the NEM

I noted quickly early this morning (snapshot from 06:10 NEM time) how AEMO was forecasting some load shedding to be required in NSW tomorrow.

Using the Forecast Convergence widget in our ez2view software, I have been progressively watching successive (half-hourly) updates today to AEMO’s forecasts for the demand curve for tomorrow, and the picture is not pretty.

Here’s a tabular view:

2017-02-09-at-13-45-ez2view-ForecastConvergenceNSW

When measured on the same basis, the all-time maximum experienced to-date was 14,579MW – however we see forecasts tomorrow exceeding this level, and up to 14,625MW.  We can see the same data in the following graphical view:

2017-02-09-at-13-45-ez2view-ForecastConvergenceNSW-chart

Hence it was not really a surprise to see how the AEMO updated their Market Notice at 12:57 today to indicate the possibility of load shedding tomorrow from 15:00 to 17:00 NEM time (or 16:00 to 18:00 Sydney daylight savings time):

2017-02-09-at-12-57-NEMWatch-MarketNotice

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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