Quite a synergistic coincidence today that, at the same time as we are finalizing the release of the GSD2020, we see the AEMO publishes its Quarterly Energy Dynamics for Q4 2020.Read More
Spring 2020 in the NEM
Prompted by an SMS alert this evening, we take a look at the tight supply/demand balance currently forecast for the QLD region on Monday afternoon next week (30th Nov 2020).
From tomorrow (Fri 20th Nov) market participants in south-western NSW and north-western VIC will need to grapple with yet another transmission constraint seeking to ‘constraint down’ their output when it’s sunny and/or windy. This one is named ‘N^^N_NIL_3’.
An evolving perspective – forecast impacts of the South Australia short, sharp ‘Circuit Breaker’ COVID response
Some brief notes about the impact that South Australia’s ‘Stay at Home’ order might have on demand in the region.
Third day in a row, and at exactly the same time as yesterday (Mon 17th Nov) the dispatch price in QLD spiked through the roof. Here’s a quick first look…
It’s not officially summer, yet – but it sure seems like it is across QLD and NSW. High temperatures drive some prices spiking up to the Market Price Cap in both ENERGY and some FCAS commodities as well…
In part 5 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a detailed look at the constraint set ‘Q-BCNE_821’ invoked to deal with the transmission outage between H11 Nebo (in ‘North’ zone) and H10 Bouldercombe (in ‘Central-West’ zone)
The prior record for ‘minimum demand’ in Victoria seems to have only lasted 8 short weeks, with the level nudged still lower on a sunny Sunday 1st November 2020 (coincident with a bit more freedom for Victorians after lockdown).
Winding down through Beer O’clock at the end of a long week with the team and the buzzing of my phone distracts to a few successive price spikes this afternoon…
In part 4 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a quick look at what happened at most of the QLD generators through this 10:00 trading period.
In part 3 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we dig deeper to explore… including wondering whether it would have been expected in advance.
Based on some preliminary analysis of the Powerlink’s ‘Qdata’ set (available in ez2view) we present our current hypothesis as to the sequence of the events yesterday in the QLD region, where 600MW of solar generation was lost, causing the price to spike to MPC.
Alerted to a price spike at 09:45 this morning in the QLD region, we discovered some reduction in load (spot-exposed Demand Response probably) and also a large collective trip in Solar Farm output (reasons unclear).
Records continue to tumble in the off-season, with the rise of rooftop PV. Both South Australia and Whole-of-NEM hit new low points Sun 11th October 2020.
A month on from the prior low point seen for Scheduled Demand (and Operational Demand) across Queensland in the middle of the day, the low point mark is driven lower still on Sunday 27th September 2020.
Hot on the heels of a new record low point for Scheduled Demand (a week ago) in VIC, today sees Scheduled Demand in SA plunge to 315MW in the 11:50 dispatch interval on Sunday 13th September 2020.
Within the same 24 hour period as California again feels the stresses of its own extremes, we see that Victoria experiences the other side of this energy transition challenge, with a new record low for Scheduled Demand set for *any* time of the day…. in the middle of the afternoon!