Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
Seasonal Record of Events in the Market
Collections of events that we see happening in the NEM, categorised in terms of the seasons in which they occur.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 13,000MW – and IRPM drops – but prices stay moderate
NSW ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
NSW ‘Market Demand’ squeezes 12,500MW as price passes $500/MWh
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
RERT negotiations commenced in NSW by AEMO on Thursday 14th December 2023
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ over 11,000MW – and forecast evening demand warming back towards 13,000MW
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at forecasts for available wind generation in NSW for this evening 14th December 2023
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
AEMO requests generator recall information in NSW and QLD for this Thursday 14th December 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ peaks above 30,000MW on Friday 8th December 2023 … first time since July
The NEM-wide demand peaked (just!) above 30GW on Friday afternoon/evening 8th December 2023.
Sydney forecast to become ‘island of extreme heat’ tomorrow Saturday 9th of December 2023
A short note following a post from Ben Domensino warning of 40+ degree weather in the Sydney metropolitan area tomorrow.
Price volatility also in NSW on Friday 8th December 2023
Second article on Friday 8th December 2023, about two NSW spikes that top-and-tail the volatility written about earlier in South Australia.
Run of extreme prices in the SA region on Friday 8th December 2023
Prices in SA have spiked to close to the market cap and remained elevated, following the invocation of the ‘I-VS_250’ constraint set due to extreme weather conditions.
Case Study (Part 2) of Low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.
Case Study – Severe Weather Challenges Day-Ahead Forecasts for 7, 8, 9 September 2023
A bout of severe weather for many parts of south-eastern Australia brought challenging weather conditions which appear to have impacted variable renewable energy forecasts for the NEM. The case study delves into forecast differences on the 7th, 8th and 9th of September 2023.
Brief period of spot volatility in QLD and NSW on Tuesday evening 5th December 2023
Some volatility in QLD and NSW on Tuesday 5th December 2023.
What’s happening around Wagga?
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes a detailed look at how VIC1-NSW1 transfer capability has been limited frequently due to constraints related to the 051 line in southern NSW, and what it means in terms of inter-regional settlements residue accumulations, market efficiency overall, and the energy transition.
Thunderstorms in South Australia impact ~30,000 electricity customers on Tuesday 28th November 2023
Thunderstorms impacted parts of South Australia electricity system in the early hours of Tuesday morning, with two syncons tripping and around 30,000 customers experiencing outages.
AEMO holds 2023-24 Summer Readiness Briefing on November 13th 2023
On Monday the AEMO held their annual Summer Readiness Briefing for Summer 2023/24. Meanwhile, the ABC are reporting that the current El Nino has reached ‘strong intensity’.