Following AEMO’s warnings issued yesterday about possible extreme heat next week in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, I take more of a look at what might transpire and compare it to historical correlations between cities.
Two quick snapshots of a high priced day in Victoria and South Australia – with the price jumping above $12,000/MWh at 15:50
Following on from Saturday’s islanding event, we use our current interest in AEMO’s 4-second SCADA data to prove a little more…
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
A brief look at the numbers with the temporary coal supply issue affecting Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B overnight
On a day when high temperatures drove demand in Victoria above 9,000MW (and NEM-wide demand above 30,000MW) we saw some price volatility – with prices in VIC and SA up around $14,000/MWh
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in Victoria and South Australia
Some observations about the events across Victoria and South Australia of Thursday 18th and Friday 19th January 2018.
Reserve Trader dispatched
AEMO announces the possibility of dispatching “Reserve Trader” tomorrow to address a forecast tight supply/demand balance.
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
Our guest author, Rob Davis, looks at what might emerge for summer 2017-18 given the La Nina outlook, and prior distributions of Cooling Degree Days for Victoria and South Australia
Two units temporarily offline at Loy Yang A on Monday 8th May (not without coincidence/conspiracy theories)