A quick article with the unfolding situation this afternoon in Victoria – tight supply/demand balance, price spike to the Market Price Cap, and RERT negotiations ….
A short note looking at forecast for Victoria today, Monday 30th December (coincidentally as Loy Yang A2 came offline on Friday evening).
With the return of Mortlake unit 2 this week, we take a quick look at current forecasts for the week and quarter ahead in Victoria.
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might…
Noticed that Loy Yang A2 is back online today, so worth a short note.
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Taking a quick look at what’s forecast for the Victorian region tomorrow, with LOR2-level Low Reserve Condition forecast.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, provides us an update today on what we can see about summer 2019-20 (in the physical market, and the financial market), now that it is only just around the corner.
With summer 2019-20 fast approaching, we’ll use the refresher on the two core components of risk (probability and consequence) to unpick what the real issue is with respect to concerns about overheating electricity supplies this summer, especially in the Victorian region.
A quick look at what would have been a new “lowest ever” point for SA Scheduled Demand today at 12;30 … if the AEMO forecast had held to be valid.
I’d rather not add to the number of conspiracy theories in circulation, but I wonder if there’s a conspiracy to make understanding our electricity system in general, and its reliability…
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
Yesterday I noted what appeared to be trips of two solar farms – Gannawarra and Karadoc – within a single dispatch interval and coincident with a period of volatile prices. Also yesterday, Dylan McConnell flagged a drop in output at the brown coal plant around the same time, with some questions. With the benefit of access to yesterday’s bids, today I have a look at the 5 power stations (pending a broader review next week by guest author, Allan O’Neil).
Some quick notes about the volatility seen in the NEM on Friday 1st March 2019 – a hot day in Victoria and South Australia, the first day of Autumn.
An AEMO Market Notice about “Generator Recall” for Friday’s forecast hot weather in South Australia and Victoria prompts a quick look at what’s changed in the forecast that would prompt this action.
Two quick notes about what happened in Victoria on Friday 25th January 2019 following conversations with a number of people.
Back at work this week and (with curiosity getting the better of me) I have another look at what happened last Thursday and Friday in the South Australian and Victorian regions of the NEM.
A first look at some of the action seen in the southern parts of the NEM on Thursday 24th January 2019 as a result of the latest crazy heatwave that has afflicted central Australia – particularly affecting electricity supply and demand in South Australia and Victoria
A short post, prior to further analysis next week, to notify readers that Reserve Trader has been dispatched today.
Some snapshots from NEMwatch recording a day where NEM-wide demand breached 33,000MW and prices spiked above $1000/MWh in VIC and SA