A Saturday morning review of the situation in Victoria, with supplies from Yallourn restricted due to flooding in the Latrobe Valley … coincident with other factors
Evening spot price volatility has become a regular thing – here’s some of it for Thursday 3rd June 2021
Spot prices spiked across mainland regions this evening – firstly at 17:55 (above $1,000/MWh). and then at 18:00 (up towards $15,000/MWh). Here’s a first look.
A shorter article – thinking more about the future, prompted by one of the factors that contributed to the price volatility seen in South Australia on Friday 12th March 2021
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM … and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
In the middle of the day today (Fri 12th Feb) VIC Premier Dan Andrews announced a snap lockdown – here’s a quick look at how this was (quickly) added into the ST PASA Operational Demand forecast.
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
Short article today observing higher Scheduled Demand in VIC – which appears to be in large part due to state-wide suppression of solar PV production with heavy cloud and rainfall.
Forecasts was that it would be hot across Victoria, and demand would be high, through Monday 25th January 2021. But the cool change arrived early.
Following several different warnings of high temperatures forecast for the lead-in to Tuesday 26th January 2021 (whatever you want to call that day) I’ve taken a quick look at what it’s currently forecast to mean for the NEM…
Short note about what might be a new record low point for electricity demand in Victoria on Christmas Day 2020.
The prior record for ‘minimum demand’ in Victoria seems to have only lasted 8 short weeks, with the level nudged still lower on a sunny Sunday 1st November 2020 (coincident with a bit more freedom for Victorians after lockdown).
Within the same 24 hour period as California again feels the stresses of its own extremes, we see that Victoria experiences the other side of this energy transition challenge, with a new record low for Scheduled Demand set for *any* time of the day…. in the middle of the afternoon!
Out of curiosity, and driven by questions received from several people, I’ve invested a bit of time today to delve further into the record low level of Scheduled Demand seen in the Victorian region (and perhaps also across the whole of the NEM) on Saturday 29th August 2020.
Have not checked thoroughly, but a quick scan suggests that the low point for Victorian Scheduled Demand at 13:05 today was a new record for minimum (daytime) demand. If it is, this would be an uncanny coincidence given …
After publishing three Case Studies on Saturday, this 4th Case Study in a long series is much more complex – with 8 different Semi-Scheduled Wind Farm units across VIC and SA exhibiting significant deviations from Target. This Case study looks at April 2016, which is also 3 years after the first 3 case studies.
Jill Cainey from Energy Networks Australia maps the impact of COVID-19 on residential and business energy consumption in Victoria.
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
In order to help us (internally) map out all the different threads to explore in terms of what happened on Friday 31st January 2020 on a remarkable day in the NEM, I’ve identified a few of the key threads here over the weekend. More articles to follow as time permits….
Guest author, Allan O’Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020