Now making it 5 out of the past 6 years, we return to the analysis of electricity (spot and futures) pricing patterns for Q2 periods across the NEM regions … and also in Western Australia. We see a number of ways in which Q2 2021 was ‘anything but boring’!
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM … and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
Some snapshots from NEMwatch recording a day where NEM-wide demand breached 33,000MW and prices spiked above $1000/MWh in VIC and SA
The first day of scorching summer temperatures for the year has been matched with elevated electricity prices in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia for most of the day. Queensland and Tasmania experienced small patches of high prices yet…
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
Alerted by our NEMwatch dashboard, I delve into the data and see a scary degree of correlation between the (very low) output of wind farms in south-east South Australia, and (similarly low) output from newer wind farms in northern NSW.
Some quick calcs to update a ball-park estimate on the cost of the Tasmanian energy crisis
The first of the diesel gensets startup in Tasmania, and make their way into the data feed.
Recapping what I’ve learnt (and highlighting some of the things I have yet to learn) about the electricity supply crisis currently facing Tasmania
A quick look at how the early winter chills are driving demand in Tasmania to levels not seen for 4 years
Who wins a consolation prize today, being closest to the flag in forecasting peak Tassie demand?
Today we have a look at what mark Tasmania reached with peak demand over “extended summer” 2014-15
A massive (60%) instantaneous reduction in Tassie’s electricity demand in the early hours of this morning caught our attention.
A few quick pointers (on New Year’s Eve) about where peak demand might land this summer in Tasmania – so you have a chance at winning Competition #6
A correction about Tamar Valley’s drop in production – and some further thoughts.
Despite consistently averaging monthly output of up to 200MW for a number of years, the Tamar Valley power station has been mothballed following an ownership change
Tasmania shivers this morning, driving electricity demand higher