Now making it 5 out of the past 6 years, we return to the analysis of electricity (spot and futures) pricing patterns for Q2 periods across the NEM regions … and also in Western Australia. We see a number of ways in which Q2 2021 was ‘anything but boring’!
Looking back at Tuesday 13th April 2021 – a day in which the ex-tropical cyclone Seroja in Western Australia caused some wobbles in rooftop solar PV output in South Australia.
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM … and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
With the release of the Generator Statistical Digest 2020, Marcelle Gannon takes a look at how it can be useful for identifying and exploring different patterns of generation.
A recent development over in the WEM (paying energy users to consume, when there’s too much solar and wind) highlights the lack of foresight in the NEM … where we’ve implemented a significant reform (yet to start) that will do nothing to address negative prices.
In part 4 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a quick look at what happened at most of the QLD generators through this 10:00 trading period.
A month on from the prior low point seen for Scheduled Demand (and Operational Demand) across Queensland in the middle of the day, the low point mark is driven lower still on Sunday 27th September 2020.
Out of curiosity, and driven by questions received from several people, I’ve invested a bit of time today to delve further into the record low level of Scheduled Demand seen in the Victorian region (and perhaps also across the whole of the NEM) on Saturday 29th August 2020.
This is the 11th Case Study in a series (looking at extreme outcomes of Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Sched units). We’ve rolled into 2018, now and (coincidence?) this one is much more complex than the first 10 from the earlier years …
After publishing three Case Studies on Saturday, this 4th Case Study in a long series is much more complex – with 8 different Semi-Scheduled Wind Farm units across VIC and SA exhibiting significant deviations from Target. This Case study looks at April 2016, which is also 3 years after the first 3 case studies.
Marcelle digs into the data to find out what the real issues are in the AER’s proposed rule change for semi-scheduled generators.
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
Here’s an attempt to translate the concern underlying the AER Issues Paper into ‘plain English’ via the popular song.
Marcelle uses the latest release of ez2view (v188.8.131.525) to further investigate the impact of low dispatch prices in QLD on Saturday July 4 2020.
Some quick reflections on a day that saw spot prices in QLD down below $0/MWh for most of the period seeing strong daylight hours, hence strong injections from rooftop PV systems.
Three main factors contributed to the spot prices in Queensland dropping underwater today for a number of hours – with some factors suggesting this might be the pattern for the coming week…
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, invests some time to explore a number of different aspects of Easter Saturday (11th April 2020), each noteworthy in their own right (including low demand, high percentage share renewables, negative prices and dynamic bidding)
Guest author, Tristan Edis, looks particularly at the Queensland Region of the NEM, and an almost complete stop in the development of new renewables projects.
Thursday 10th October 2019 presented another day of many negative price events in the QLD region. In this Case Study (prepared for dual purposes) we look at how one particular solar farm operated through this period – Ross River Solar Farm.
Guest author Allan O’Neil provides this handy explainer on how generators’ contract positions affect their bidding decisions and can make negative spot prices pay off, at least in the short term. Very useful for those readers not actively involved in wholesale trading in helping to understand why some conspiracy theories might not match reality.