We just witnessed another eventful Q2, with at least four drivers contributing to significant price volatility. This is our annual review of Q2 prices, where we compare these outcomes against the long-term trend.
As the SMS alerts continue, here’s an article to record the new low point for Market Demand in NSW on Sunday 29th October 2023.
In a rare occurrence (and perhaps a sign of the times), we noted that the cumulative price in SA turned negative yesterday afternoon.
A short note at a ‘new normal’ condition that we can expect to see increasingly in NEM regions (including QLD) as rooftop PV continues to grow in scale.
[POSTED AT ~13:00] On Sat 11th Sept 2021, the ‘Grid Demand’ in the NSW region has dropped to levels not seen for many, many years … especially when considering it is in the middle of the day!
Following comments on social media over the weekend about a new low point for brown coal generation, I took a quick look.
Prompted by reports elsewhere of solar PV production eclipsing coal-fired production on Sunday for a period of time, I had a quick look (including at aggregate bid volumes).
Now making it 5 out of the past 6 years, we return to the analysis of electricity (spot and futures) pricing patterns for Q2 periods across the NEM regions … and also in Western Australia. We see a number of ways in which Q2 2021 was ‘anything but boring’!
Looking back at Tuesday 13th April 2021 – a day in which the ex-tropical cyclone Seroja in Western Australia caused some wobbles in rooftop solar PV output in South Australia.
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM … and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
With the release of the Generator Statistical Digest 2020, Marcelle Gannon takes a look at how it can be useful for identifying and exploring different patterns of generation.
A recent development over in the WEM (paying energy users to consume, when there’s too much solar and wind) highlights the lack of foresight in the NEM … where we’ve implemented a significant reform (yet to start) that will do nothing to address negative prices.
In part 4 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a quick look at what happened at most of the QLD generators through this 10:00 trading period.
A month on from the prior low point seen for Scheduled Demand (and Operational Demand) across Queensland in the middle of the day, the low point mark is driven lower still on Sunday 27th September 2020.
Out of curiosity, and driven by questions received from several people, I’ve invested a bit of time today to delve further into the record low level of Scheduled Demand seen in the Victorian region (and perhaps also across the whole of the NEM) on Saturday 29th August 2020.
This is the 11th Case Study in a series (looking at extreme outcomes of Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Sched units). We’ve rolled into 2018, now and (coincidence?) this one is much more complex than the first 10 from the earlier years …
After publishing three Case Studies on Saturday, this 4th Case Study in a long series is much more complex – with 8 different Semi-Scheduled Wind Farm units across VIC and SA exhibiting significant deviations from Target. This Case study looks at April 2016, which is also 3 years after the first 3 case studies.
Marcelle digs into the data to find out what the real issues are in the AER’s proposed rule change for semi-scheduled generators.
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
Here’s an attempt to translate the concern underlying the AER Issues Paper into ‘plain English’ via the popular song.