Minimum Market Demand in NSW drops lower still, on Sunday 29th October 2023

It’s not really a surprise (with spring 2023 ongoing) that my phone began buzzing this Sunday morning at 10:15:20 for the 10:20 dispatch interval – with SMS alerts marking new low points for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW, as shown here:

As per the SMS alert message, the last time a new minimum demand point for NSW was set was three weeks ago (Sun 8th Oct 2023 at 13:10, when the low point reached was 3,868.54MW).   Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 10:30 with the demand down at 3,800MW:

Worth noting (in the Market Notices window) a series of on-again-off-again warnings for forecast LOR2 levels for NSW for tomorrow, Monday 30th October 2023.  But that’s food for a separate article.

In terms of levels of ‘Market Demand’ in NSW today,  it will no doubt drop further as we approach peak PV time during the day …

(A)  Related Discussion at All Energy 2023

There was plenty of discussion about the challenges of rooftop PV and minimum demand at All Energy during the week just finished, including by Kate Summers and Damien Sanford in the opening session on Thursday 26th October.   Kate also commented on declining levels of minimum demand, which I noted here at the time:‘

Without a hint of irony, however, in the very next panel session at number of speakers (including Warwick Johnston and Jenny Paradiso) suggested we should further supercharge the rate of rooftop PV adoption through the extension of the STC scheme in the RET beyond 2030 and also raising the level of eligibility (from 100kW maximum) to 200kW maximum.  I noted this at the time, also:

I did not make it into Ben Burge’s session at All Energy (missed many of them because of great one-on-one conversations) but Giles wrote that Ben talked about negative prices being a ‘gift’ to business … though I know others have other perspectives.

(B)  What was the low point today?

Later in the day we look back and see that the low points were:

1)   ‘Market Demand’ lowest point being 3,664MW for the 11:45 dispatch interval (NEM time); and

2)   ‘Operational Demand’ lowest point being 3,719MW for the half our period ending 12:00 (NEM time); and

Here’s a 30-day trend using NEMreview v7:

(C)  AEMO confirmation

On Monday 30th October, the AEMO confirmed this here on LinkedIn, and provided additional context of other record low points: