A deeper (but still incomplete) look into the Overnight volatility in South Australia (i.e. part 2)
A follow-on second look at the volatility experienced in South Australia around midnight beginning Thursday 8th September 2022.
Forecast Convergence
A collation of articles tagged with ‘Forecast Convergence’ – which is a way of looking at that other dimension of time.
These might be:
1) Articles using the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within our ez2view software;
2) Or it might be other representations of the same concept, such as in our GenInsights Quarterly Updates report.
AEMO continue to watch for forecast LOR3 … e.g. MN99072 in preliminary forecast for Thu 30th June in SA
With Market Suspension possibly being lifted tomorrow morning, the flagging of forecast LOR3 in *very preliminary* ST PASA run for Thursday 30th June was of interest.
Increased visibility of LOR3 forecasts
An update on our thinking about LOR forecasts, under these ‘far from normal’ current market conditions.
What does the future hold for Wind and Solar in the NEM – seen via GenInsights21?
Following from the release of GenInsights21, in this article we look at some of what that analytical publication can help us understand, in terms of how the changing market is impacting on the role that renewables will increasingly play in the NEM in the years to come.
Another ‘mystery DUID’ puzzle (from Forecast Convergence in GenInsights21)
A second ‘mystery DUID’ puzzle … perhaps more complex than the first … from GenInsights21, for those who like to be challenged in ways like these.
What does ‘Forecast Convergence’ for MT PASA DUID Availability help us understand, about the ESB’s Final Advice?
Following from the ESB’s Final Advice, and inspired by the one year anniversary of publications the MT PASA DUID Availability data sets by AEMO (thanks to the ERM-sponsored rule change) we take a quick look about both initiatives might mean for each other. More to come in GenInsights21, time permitting.
Exploring the price spike in NSW on Wednesday morning 14th July
Returning to the price spike in NSW on Wednesday morning (to $15,100/MWh for 3 dispatch intervals) to explore some of the reasons why it happened – and why it happened unexpectedly.
Is the predictability of day-ahead demand improving?
Day-ahead demand forecasts will be integral to any future ‘Ahead Market’. We take a look at the current state and accuracy trend of demand forecasts made 24 hours ahead as part of the broader piece of work to feed into GenInsights21.
Three potential tripwires looming in October 2021, for those who are not wary
A short article, flagging three potential tripwires we’d like to ensure NEM participants and other stakeholders are aware of in the lead-up to two significant market changes from October 2021.
Out of the blue, an LOR2
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might have been expected, but it certainly wasn’t incident-free. A very…
What happened yesterday (Fri 20th Dec 2019) in the Victorian Region? A first look…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Exploring AEMO’s demand forecast “error” for Saturday 26th October 2019
Four weeks ago, we observed a significant discrepancy between AEMO’s forecast for (what would have been) a record low point for Scheduled Demand in South Australia and what actually eventuated. We’ve now had time to explore further…
A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.
Collective skittishness about South Australia?
With high temperatures forecast for SA (hence higher demand) coinciding with low wind, social media references to “blackout” increase. Is this helpful?
Examining why Pelican Point didn’t bid full capacity into the NEM on Wednesday 8 February
Some thoughts by our guest author, about possible reasons why Engie did not bid full output of Pelican Point power station into AEMO on Wednesday 8th February (i.e. the time at which load shedding eventuated).
[Post 2] Later AEMO forecasts moderate demand forecasts slightly – but still looks to be massive
Demand forecast down slightly on this morning, but still looking like a record.
AEMO’s successive forecasts for NSW tomorrow paint a progressively WORSE picture
Here’s an update on the situation in NSW
Initial Analysis: SA Load Shedding Wed 8 Feb 2017
A look at the supply/demand fundamentals in South Australia and explaining why load shedding was initiated.
Energy sector unions throw oil onto fire
Putting another cat amongst the pigeons, energy sector unions at Loy Yang A have announced Industrial Action at the station over Christmas.