Anatomy of an Energy Crisis, Australian style – part 1
Let's start with this broader analysis of this 2022 Energy Crisis by looking at the long-term series of monthly average spot prices across all regions...
Articles by Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
Volatile prices on Friday evening 3rd June 2022
A short article to document another volatility evening.
AEMO continues to monitor gas supplies – with respect to high demand
With respect to yesterday’s ‘Notification of Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event’ and this evening’s tight supply-demand balance in the NEM, worth noting this AEMO tweet at 17:50 this evening: … which links to this...
Very tight supply-demand (NEM wide!) on Thursday 2nd June 2022
NEM-wide IRPM is dropping lower and lower on Thursday 2nd June 2022
First evening price spike above $1,000/MWh – at 16:40 on Thursday evening 2nd June 2022
At 16:40 the price spiked above $1,000/MWh for the first time this evening.
Morning price volatility on Thursday 2nd June 2022
A quick look at this morning's volatility - and also with respect to coal unit availability prior to the expected tight conditions this evening.
Explaining dispatch (and price setting) regarding Eraring Unit 2 on 30th May 2022
A question on Twitter from Benny Beatts (about dispatch of Origin's Eraring unit 2 on Monday 30th May) illustrates why price setting is not as simple as adding up bids that are dispatched.
Update to the precarious situation forecast for tomorrow – Thursday 2nd June 2022
There's been some movement in AEMO's forecast Lack of Reserve positions for tomorrow (Thu 2nd June 2022) but the outlook still seems to be tight...
NEM-wide IRPM drops below 15% on Wednesday 1st June 2022
Across the NEM, surplus Available Generation is less than 15% more than aggregate Market Demand ... a low IRPM.
Tight supply-demand balance forecast for QLD and NSW on Thursday 2nd June 2022
A quick look at the current forecast for tight supply-demand balance on Thursday evening 2nd June 2022
Tight supply-demand, so price volatility, in NSW and QLD on Tuesday 31st May 2022
A short look at the start of price volatility on Tuesday evening 31st May 2022
New record production from wind on Tuesday 31st May 2022 (larger still in the afternoon!)
A short note about a 'blowing a gale' new maximum point for wind production across the NEM this morning (Tue 31st May 2022).
What would happen if…?
Have already posted a few articles today, but will leave you with a question that one of our readers asked me earlier today… It’s quite a topical question: 1) with the Cumulative Price Threshold...
Tight supply-demand balance on Monday evening 30th May 2022 drives prices high and IRPM low
A very quick summary of market volatility touching all regions across Monday 30th May 2022 ... but particularly in the evening.
AEMO notice about ‘Upcoming cold weather and gas market operation from 30/05/2022 to 06/06/2022’
AEMO asks gas-fired generators, in particular, to reassess their forecast capability for the week ahead.
AEMO suspects possible LOR3 Lack of Reserve conditions in forecast for QLD next Monday 6th June 2022 … but it was data input error!
AEMO's Market Notice 96633 jumped off the page for us...
Victorian wholesale gas prices hit Cumulative Price Threshold
Referencing Josh Stabler's comment on LinkedIn about Administered Pricing in the Victorian DWGM.
A (temporary?) reprieve from the incessant high prices on Sunday 29th May 2022
Something I've not seen all that much for quite a while ... zero and negative prices in the middle of the day.
Short-term wind lull on Friday 27th May 2022
A quick look into the short-term wind lull spanning more than daylight hours on Friday 27th May 2022.
Blast off! Q3 base-load futures contract prices jump $30/MWh to $40/MWh on Wednesday 25th May 2022
Prompted by a tweet from Dylan McConnell, here's a trended look at price and volume for baseload ASX Energy futures contracts for Q3 2022 (and the picture's not pretty).