Splitting the ‘X5 constraint’ into two … double trouble?
From 08:00 (NEM time) this morning, the old 'X5 constraint' (i.e. formerly formally known as 'N^^N_NIL_3') has been split into two (i.e. addressing separately risk of tripping of...
Articles by Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 3 … (+861MW AggROT – source of AvailGen)
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e....
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 2 … (+861MW AggROT – individual units)
In Part 2 of this Case Study, we look at those 15 x Semi-Scheduled units highlighted with large deviations (mostly under-performance) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 in...
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (+861MW AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units) … Part 1 of (an uncertain number)
In Part 1 of this Case Study, we start to look at the large collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units (i.e. Wind and Large Solar) at 17:05 on...
AER notice … ‘Market notice from the WEMDRA – Referral to dispute resolution panel’ … about scheduling error on 10th August 2022
A short note following on from the Scheduling Error experienced by AEMO on 10th August 2022.
Some revelations in GenInsights Q4 2022 about Aggregate Raw Off-Target for Semi-Scheduled units
In today's article (a third snippet from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022) we take a look at levels of large 'Aggregate Raw Off-Target' (i.e. large collective deviations...
Observation 13/22 from GenInsights21 – is the Semi-Scheduled category sustainable or scalable?
Here on this site, and also in real discussions in the offline world, we have been pondering this question for a number of years. For instance, it was...
Coal generation gets a run in the UK to ensure supply meets demand
Another quick article today - this to record the rare use of coal in the UK on a cold evening with insufficient other supply.
The never-ending story? More delays in return-to-service at both Callide C3 and C4
A short article today noting the additional delays in return-to-service expectations for both Callide C3 and C4.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ above 13,000MW on a hot Monday 6th March 2023 … and Actual LOR1
On Monday afternoon 6th March 2023 a late burst of summer in NSW has driven Market Demand above 13,000MW.
Unavailability of coal units hits 24% across calendar 2022 (but they are *not* collectively tripping more often)
This second excerpt from GenInsights 2022 Q4 Update highlights some of what's seen in terms of the performance of coal units.
Forecasts for a hot Monday 6th March in NSW, and potential LOR2 in the evening (now also Tuesday evening)
Could be a hot one in (Sydney and) NSW on Monday 6th March 2023 ... with AEMO forecasting potential LOR2 low reserve condition.
A quick look at EnergyAustralia’s outage plans for Yallourn Power Station
Prompted by the massive loss reported by CLP for its EnergyAustralia business, and plans for major outages for 4 units at Yallourn, we took a quick look using...
Some revelations in GenInsights Q4 2022 about Self-Forecasting
This first excerpt from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022 looks specifically at the trended level of adoption of self-forecasting for Semi-Scheduled Solar Farms in the NEM. This...
Observation 15/22 from GenInsights21 – what is the purpose of Self-Forecasting?
Today, more than 14 months after the publication of GenInsights21 we're sharing Key Observation 15 of 22, relating to self-forecasting for Semi-Scheduled units.
Recapping Thursday 23rd Feb 2023 (when hot weather drove demand in South Australia highest in 9 years)
On Thursday 23rd February, hot weather in SA drove 'Market Demand' to its highest level in just over 9 years, and delivered a bit of spot price volatility....
AEMO publishes an Update to the 2022 ESOO
On Tuesday 21st February 2023 the AEMO published an update on its 2022 ESOO.
Current expectation for closure dates of Liddell and Eraring Power Stations
Drawing from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022, and the next version of our ez2view software, we take a look at the *current* expectations for closure of Liddell...
Price volatility in VIC and SA on a warm summer evening, Thursday 16th February 2023
A quick post about some evening volatility in VIC and SA
GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022 released
Following an Executive Briefing last week to one client, this week we released the PDF Report for GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022. Here's some information to explain...