There were a number of SMS alerts this evening, triggered by IRPM dropping below 15% for most dispatch intervals between 17:50 and 18:40 on Wednesday evening 19th June … but it was not as deep, or as long, as what happened on Monday 17th June or Tuesday 18th June … hence as per expectations in this earlier forecast.
Here’s a snapshot of the 17:50 dispatch interval in NEMwatch at the start of the run:
What’s notable in that snapshot includes:
1) NEM-wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin at 14.46%
2) NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ already up at 32,092MW
3) From a VRE perspective:
(a) Large Solar at close to 0MW
(b) Wind yield just under 2,000MW … so better than was the case on Tuesday
4) In this dispatch interval, the only interconnector constrained was Basslink.
5) For the third evening in a row, despite the tight supply-demand balance, prices did not go ballistic.
… which is, in large part, due to the lack of intra-regional transmission constraints on the mainland (i.e. ensuring competition between generators in different regions).
Here’s a tabular run of NEM-wide IRPM, with the range of dispatch intervals under 15% highlighted … noting two in there were just above 15%:
In particular note:
1) Lowest point this evening for NEM-wide IRPM was 18:00 down at 13.85%; whilst
2) Highest point for NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ was 18:15, up at 32,262MW … so higher than seen on either on Monday 17th June or Tuesday 18th June.
That’s all for now.
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