An email alert triggered from a display copy of NEM-Watch we have running continually in the office alerted us to the forecast LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) condition for this Tuesday in South Australia:
In NEM-Watch we can see that the predispatch forecast for Monday in South Australia is currently for a tight supply-demand balance, and so prices up near the Market Price Cap for a number of hours:
Looking further into the future, with the ST PASA view in ez2view we can see that Tuesday (and subsequent days) is forecast to show negative surplus reserve in South Australia, and that this forecast has grown worse over the past 10 hours:
As noted in their Market Notice, AEMO is seeking a market response to ensure that the load shedding will not be required – will be very interesting to see what eventuates!