2023-24 GenCost consultation draft released – just before Xmas 2023

On Thursday 21st December 2023 we saw that the CSIRO’s 2023-24 GenCost consultation draft was released …. but we’ve only been able to post about it now:

(A)  From the CSIRO … and the AEMO

There’s a few different pieces of information at different sites, including the following:

In this case in the AEMO Newsroom, there does not seem to have been a Media Release published … nor anything specifically on social media about these two releases.

Over at the CSIRO, I did notice that:

1)  There was this News Release published…

2)  … and also that the organisation tweeted this:

On their website, the AEMO notes here:

‘This draft 2024 Forecasting Assumptions Update uses the latest information available to update assumptions specifically relevant to the reliability assessment for the 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).
The updates include (but are not limited to):
(a)  Updated Consumer Energy Resources, including Electric Vehicles
(b)  Draft 2023-24 GenCost report (CSIRO).’

The key points seems to be that (from an AEMO perspective)

1)  Submissions are due to forecasting.planning@aemo.com.au by Friday 9 February 2024; and

2)  Consumer advocates can register here to attend a joint verbal submission session from 3-4pm AEDT on Wednesday 7 February 2024.

3)  The final GenCost 2023-24 report will be released in the second quarter of 2024.

(B)  Media Headlines

A quick scan of the main media outlets at that time, and since, reveals a number of articles:

1)  In the AFR …:

(a)  Ben Potter wrote  ‘Renewables are cheapest, even with poles, wires and batteries added in’ on the morning of the 21st December

(b)  At the end of the same day, someone wrote ‘CSIRO’s nuclear cost blowout a shallow analysis – O’Brien’.

2)  In the Australian …:

(a)  Patrick Commins wrote ‘Nuclear still most expensive energy, says CSIRO’ on 21st December 2023:

(b)  Nothing else?

3)  In the Guardian:

(a)  Graham Readfearn wrote ‘Solar and on-shore wind provide cheapest electricity and nuclear most expensive, CSIRO analysis shows’.

(b)  Then Amy Remeikis & Katharine Murphy wrote ‘Pro-nuclear MP says Labor weaponising CRISO report showing renewables are cheapest’.

4)  Via RenewEconomy:

(a)  Giles Parkinson wrote ‘CSIRO says wind and solar much cheaper than nuclear, even with added integration costs’

(b)  Nothing else?

5)  In the SMH / Age / Canberra Times:

(a)  Marion Rae wrote ‘Steeper cost of small reactors a blow to nuclear push’ .

6)  On ABC:

(a)  Gareth Hutchins wrote ‘Nuclear energy is more expensive than renewables, CSIRO report finds’ .

(b)  Nothing else?

7)  In PV Magazine:

(a)  On the same day, David Carroll wrote ‘GenCost confirms solar, wind remain cheapest forms of energy’ for PV Magazine Australia:

(b)  Nothing else?

8)  In InDaily:

(a)  Marion Rae wrote ‘Cost update blasts nuclear out of energy mix’ :

9)  In EcoGeneration:

(a)  A couple weeks later (on Thursday 4th January 2024), Zihan (Fred) Zhang  wrote ‘GenCost reveals renewable’s future dominance in Australia’ for the magazine:

… no doubt there are more that I’ve not come across, yet.

(C)  On social media

Seeking not to fall into any particular rabbit hole, it’s worth flagging that I have seen quite a lot of commentary on social media in relation to several aspects of the GenCost process – including:

1)  A fairly large amount of commentary from those who would seek to promote nuclear technology as a cost-effective means by which Australia might achieve sustainable emissions reductions; and also

2)  Others commenting about the ways in which the CSIRO has (as they note as a Key Point in their Media Release) ‘Pre-2030 integration costs now included’ … as a change in their prior process.

3)  No doubt there are other particular threads as well.

I could say something like ‘time permitting, would like to review the details of GenCost’ … but I know that, realistically, I won’t have time …