Part 3 … Victorian demand holding up at higher levels than successive AEMO forecasts

Posted by Paul McArdle Sunday, December 31 2023 Topic: 2023-12-31 low demand, Decline of Minimum demand, Summer 2023-24 in the NEM

Following Part 1 and Part 2 I’ve been watching to see any Market Notice relating to possible ‘curtailment of rooftop PV’ (or other interventions that the AEMO might take to deliver more demand on the Victorian Grid) …  but have not (yet?) see anything.

It’s curious that successive AEMO P30 predispatch forecasts continue to predict a low-point for ‘Market Demand’ that’s ~350MW lower than where we now are … but actual levels of ‘Market Demand’ seem to be resisting those forecasts from the AEMO.  Here’s a view of two different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 13:05 dispatch interval today:

2023-12-31-at-13-05-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-VIC-demand

Whilst the P30 forecasts (on the left) are showing AEMO is expecting demand might be considerably lower than it is, the P5 predispatch forecasts (on the right) are showing AEMO expects demand to rise.  Sounds like some conflict in the models … and a reminder that ‘any model is just a model – it’s not reality’?!

Something to dig into later, time permitting …

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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2 Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. Updated long-term trend of Victorian minimum demand - WattClarity
  2. Recapping the accelerating decline in ‘Minimum Demand’ levels across the NEM, at the end of 2023 - WattClarity

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