Tis the season … for a ‘bomb cyclone’ in North America that stretches wholesale supplies of electricity (and leaves >1M customers off supply with localised network outages)

Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator

(IESO)

We did not see any updates on the Twitter channels of the IESO

… but we did see:

1)  updates from Hydro One (the main TSO) such as this thread:

2)  the Ontario Energy Board did pre-emptively provide this warning;

3)  the Ontario Ministry of Energy did also pre-emptively provide this warning.

From my perspective, all of this (on brief scan) looks to be localised issues with the storm, not about stretched supplies.

New York Independent System Operator

(NYISO)

On the NYISO twitter handle, I did not see anything specific to suggest stretched supplies.

… but I did see Jared Anderson from S&P report on power demand shooting past forecast as a result of the storm:

New England Independent System Operator

(ISO-NE)

In the days leading up to the cold snap the ISO-NE reported the release of their 21-day assessment of New England’s energy supply forecasts (with that update linking to this added information from 19th December).

However there have been no Energy Alerts or Emergencies communicated via social media that I could see in a quick scan just now.

—

I did note on Twitter here that Meredith Angwin did comment on the relatively high use of oil-fired generation in the ISO-NE area:

Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland Interconnection

(PJM)

On the PJM twitter handle, there were a series of alerts issued that appear to be related to tight supply-demand balance:

1)  First notice ‘today’ (Brisbane time = UTC+10) was at 03:16AM:

… which linked to this ‘UPDATE:  Cold-Weather Alert expanded to all of PJM for Dec 24-25’.

2)  This was then followed twelve hours later with this call to conserve power:

… which linked to this News Release ’PJM asks consumers to conserve electricity’ published for this event, noting:

‘PJM is asking consumers to reduce their use of electricity, if health permits, between the hours of 4 a.m. on December 24, 2022 and 10 a.m. on December 25, 2022.’

3)  Under four hours later, PJM also shared this:

… which linked to the same Media Release and call for energy conservation.

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With respect to PJM, I noted Antony Stace (from SwissRE) posted this update on LinkedIn earlier:

… including the link to the Bloomberg Article ‘Eastern US Power Grid Orders Cuts Amid System-Wide Emergency’.

Mid-Continent Independent System Operator

(MISO)

On the MISO twitter handle, there was even this ‘Maximum Generation Warning’ issued at almost exactly the same time as the first warning from PJM above:

… but this Maximum Generation Warning was terminated ~4 hours later, whilst they noted MISO ‘remains in Conservative Operations for the South Region’.  However that Maximum Generation Warning resurfaced ~2.5 hours later … ‘Due to tight conditions and unplanned generation outages’:

… and under 2 hours after that had declared a ‘Maximum Generation Emergency Event Step 2a’ with the same two causes noted:

… with further information provided in this MCS Notification about the Alert Level at NERC EEA Level 2.

(1)  Load management procedures in effect

Quickly skimming this NERC Operating Procedure for Emergency Operations, I see that EEA 2 (on p12/17) is described as follows:

‘EEA 2 — Load management procedures in effect.

Circumstances: 

(a)  The Balancing Authority is no longer able to provide its expected energy requirements and is an energy deficient Balancing Authority. 

(b)  An energy deficient Balancing Authority has implemented its Operating Plan(s) to mitigate Emergencies.

(c)  An energy deficient Balancing Authority is still able to maintain minimum Contingency Reserve requirements.’

… so sounds a little bit like our LOR2 Lack of Reserve Notices in the NEM?

(2)  Wind generation underperforming?

Approx 2.5 hours after that PJM update, I saw Kelsey Johnson ask a question about how wind performance was ~6,000MW (approx 25%) below the day-ahead forecast:

but I did not see a response.

Then ~3 hours after the prior notice, the PJM ended its Maximum Generation Emergency (again):

That’s the last update from MISO, to this point.

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The tight supply-demand balance in MISO drove up prices, as Michael Caravaggio (from EPRI) noted via LinkedIn here:

In terms of the fuel mix, I saw that Tom Butz (from Minnesota Power) asked some questions via LinkedIn here:

South-West Power Pool

(SPP)

On the SPP  twitter handle, there have been a series of alerts:

1)  The first two published early this morning (Brisbane time),  arrived around the same time as the first alerts in PJM and MISO:

… and notes a new record for wintertime electricity consumption on 22nd December (at 47,000MW – more information here) and contains a useful graphical indicator of the progression of alert level.

2)  Then ~7 hours later the organisation declared an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 for its entire Balancing Authority’

>> Reference to the NERC document referenced above shows that an EEA Alert Level 1 to be:

‘EEA 1 — All available generation resources in use.

Circumstances: 

(a)  The Balancing Authority is experiencing conditions where all available generation resources are committed to meet firm Load, firm transactions, and reserve commitments, and is concerned about sustaining its required Contingency Reserves. 

(b)  Non-firm wholesale energy sales (other than those that are recallable to meet reserve requirements) have been curtailed’

This alert level was ceased ~2.5 hours later:

… and that’s the last update from them at this point.

Electric Reliability Council of Texas

(ERCOT)

On the ERCOT  twitter handle, the only note today suggests that supply-demand is tight, but no EEA level alerts:

re have been a series of alerts:

… though note is made of localised (distribution level) network outages, with the helpful link to these Storm Resources from the Public Utilities Commission of Texas.

Alberta Electricity System Operator

(AESO)

Up north in Alberta, the AESO twitter handle contained a number of updates over the past couple of days:

Approximately 60 hours ago from writing this article (so 2 days before alerts in PJM, MISO and SPP), the AESO declared a grid alert beginning 16:24 local time on 21st December as follows:

The AESO reported system returned to normal at 18:29 local time the same day, with demand reaching an all-time hourly peak (12,193MW).

I’ve not seen any alerts in the ~2 day since (but there had been several in the days prior to that time).

California Independent System Operator

(CAISO)

In California on the CAISO twitter handle,  I could not see any alerts specifically for that west coast grid.