AEMO briefly forecasts load shedding for NSW on Saturday morning 8th October (possibly data glitch?)

Just arrived home today and greeted with an SMS alert on the basis of this Market Notice published at 18:33 this evening, pertaining to forecast LOR3 (i.e. ‘load shedding’) Low Reserve Condition tomorrow morning in NSW over 2 x discrete half hour periods:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     07/10/2022     18:33:29

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Notice ID               :         102136
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         07/10/2022
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Suspect Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 08/10/2022

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO considers that there are suspect Forecast LOR3 conditions for the NSW region for the following periods:

1. From 0730 hrs on 08/10/2022 to 0800 hrs on 08/10/2022.

2. From 1000 hrs 08/10/2022 to 1030 hrs on 08/10/2022.

AEMO is currently investigating these LOR3 forecast conditions.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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The tone of this note implies some dubiousness about the forecast (perhaps a data glitch?), but I was curious enough to have a look.  Here’s a snapshot of the current forecast of LOR and I note the forecast load shedding does not appear:

In the release notes for ez2view v9.5 that will be published next week, we’ll be alerting clients that they can use the ‘Trends Engine’ to open their own copy of this live-updating trend here.

Thankfully in the broader ez2view Installed Software we provide clients the ability to review that other dimension of time via the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget … so, not seeing the forecast LOR3 condition in the above (and wondering how it came about in any case) – so here’s the view of the LOR condition for the NSW region:

We can see that the forecast red blobs are there in the PDPASA run for 18:30 this evening, but not in the PDPASA run for 19:00 this evening … which is why I could not see them in the one dimensional chart first image above.

Flipping to look at Available Generation and zooming in to read the numbers, I have highlighted the two verticals representing the 08:00 and 10:30 half-hour periods, and within the vertical I have highlighted the Available Generation forecast in P30 predispatch corresponding to the (briefly) forecast LOR3 condition:

In both cases there’s a small drop in Available Generation in the forecast (larger for 10:30 than for 08:00), but it surprises me that such a small change would trigger LOR3 when not even LOR1 had been forecast in the prior run.  There’s obviously more to it than this:

1)  I did look at any large change in demand forecast, but nothing jumped out;

2)  Strangely, the price forecast did not even show a jump, as you would expect if it was a ‘real’ LOR3;

3)  So there is more to it, but I don’t have time to dig further….

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PS1 … AEMO review says ‘invalid’ solution

Shortly after I posted the above, the AEMO published Market Notice 102137 as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 07/10/2022 19:28:33

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Notice ID : 102137
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 07/10/2022
External Reference : PDPASA – Update of the suspect Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the NSW Region on 08/10/2022

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The suspect LOR3 condition advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 102136 has been reviewed.

AEMO considers this forecast LOR3 condition in the 1830 PD PASA solution invalid. Subsequent PD PASA runs are producing valid solutions.

No LOR condition is currently forecast for the NSW region.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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I’m still interested in the particular source of the glitch…

If anyone sees anything else, you might like to add a comment below?