Well, after Monday evening/afternoon warm-up (pardon the pun) to ‘the main event’ that might be occurring on Tuesday 1st February and Wednesday 2nd February in the northern regions of the NEM, prices have subsided somewhat, as shown in this snapshot from NEMwatch in the 20:30 dispatch/trading interval (NEM time) on Monday 31st January 2022:
Pay particular attention to the Market Notice 94316 highlighted in the image above and copied below – with the layperson’s translation of an LOR3 Low Reserve Condition warning meaning that AEMO is forecasting *possible* load shedding in the QLD region tomorrow evening (Tuesday 1st February 2022):
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 31/01/2022 19:59:59
Notice ID : 94316
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 31/01/2022
External Reference : PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the QLD Region on 01/02/2022
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR3 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:
[1.] From 1800 hrs 01/02/2022 to 1900 hrs 01/02/2022.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 39 MW at 1800 hrs.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO estimates the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 1400 hrs on 01/02/2022
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
END OF REPORT
The emphasis here should be placed on the fact that the AEMO is forecasting that it might be possible … and that the whole purpose of these forecasts is to encourage a market response – so it may well turn out (we all hope!) that such load shedding does not have to occur.
The broader picture, however, is that the supply/demand balance will be very, very tight…. and it’s almost certain that prices will be sky-high.