Forecast ‘Market Demand’ in Queensland on Wednesday 2nd February now up at 9,929MW at 17:30


On Thursday evening last week I posted this short note about AEMO’s forecasts (at the time) for a possible LOR3 (Low Reserve Condition) warning for the Queensland region this coming Wednesday, 2nd October 2022 … i.e. (a relatively small amount of) possible load shedding.

Since  that time I’ve been trying to keep track of the forecasts, and (before being distracted by today’s volatility in South Australia) was remarking on the AEMO’s current forecast for ‘Market Demand’ in the QLD region for this coming Wednesday evening, 2nd February 2022 … which is now showing up just shy of the 10,000MW mark as we see here in this updated 14-day trend:

2022-01-30-ez2view-Trend-QLDdemandforecast

An earlier update of this same trend* was included in my note on Thursday  and showed the same measure of demand (only) up at 9,505MW

* note that those with their own licence to ez2view can open their own copy of this pre-prepared 14-day trend query here.

… so a couple quick notes…

 

(A)  Would be very close to an all-time record!

I noted last Thursday that the all-time maximum was set at 10,052MW in the 16:55 dispatch interval on Wednesday 13th February 2019.

 If indeed the demand does climb to the level now being forecast on Sunday afternoon, it would give that all-time record a run for its money!

Updating this ‘Weather in Brisbane’ query now shows the forecast temperature peak for Wednesday up at a very sticky 35degC … overlapping with forecasted arrival of what will be a much awaited afternoon thunderstorm:

2022-01-30-Weather-in-QLD-forecast

… so it’s clearly fair to say that there’s considerable uncertainty about what will actually unfold:

1)  For instance, cloud cover but no rain would deliver a double-whammy of depressing solar output and also driving humidity higher … which would compound the effect on ‘Market Demand’ – so there are challenges confronting AEMO in terms of nailing the demand forecast and also (more significantly)

2)  In his comment on LinkedIn here in response to my last article, Dave Smith wonders what we should be calling these types of (increasingly significant, as explored in GenInsights21) events?

Referring again to the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view, we can clearly see the (more than 500MW) measure of uncertainty that the AEMO is grappling with in forecasting QLD demand on Tuesday 1st February and Wednesday 2nd February:

2022-01-30-at-14-05-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-QLDdemand

We’ll have to wait to see what happens…

 

(B)  Tight supply/demand balance on Tuesday 1st February (QLD and NSW) and Wednesday 2nd February

No surprise, really, that the forecast LOR2 conditions are persisting in the QLD region for Tuesday 1st February and Wednesday 2nd February … but what I’d not noted before was that the AEMO’s issued Market Notice 94210 today (Sunday) at 10:45 also asking ‘Generator Recall Information’ for NSW on Tuesday 1st February, as we see here…

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Notice ID            94210
Notice Type ID        RECALL GEN CAPACITY
Notice Type Description    MARKET
Issue Date            Sunday, 30 January 2022
External Reference        Request for Generator Recall Information for the period for 01/02/2022 for NSW Region
________________________________________________________________________________________________

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice 94208

Please provide Generator Recall Information for 01/02/2022 by 1200 hrs EST on 31/01/2022 via the Generator Recall communication system, in accordance with clause 4.8.5A of the National Electricity Rules.

SO_OP_3719 Procedure for Submitting Generator Outage Recall Information is available at:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/security_and_reliability/power_system_ops/procedures/so_op_3719-procedure-for-submitting-recall-information-scheduled-generator-outages.pdf

Procedure on how to use Generator Recall in the EMMS Markets Portal is available at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/IT-Systems-and-Change/2018/Guide-to-Generator-Recall-Plans.pdf

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

This is because of the forecast LOR2 conditions for the NSW region on Tuesday 1st February 2022 – first declared in Market Notice 94197 this morning at 00:25 and then updated since at 05:32 (MN94201) at 08:41 (MN94204) … and then at 10:35 in MN94208 shown here:

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Notice ID            94208
Notice Type ID        LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Notice Type Description    MARKET
Issue Date            Sunday, 30 January 2022
External Reference        STPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the NSW Region on 01/02/2022
________________________________________________________________________________________________

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the NSW region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 94204 has been updated at 1030 hrs 30/01/2022 to the following period:

From 1530 hrs 01/02/2022 to 1930 hrs 01/02/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1597 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 796 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

 

A challenging couple of days ahead!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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