It’s pretty common these days to hear people in the National Electricity Market speaking with respect to the journey we’re on as currently at a ‘messy middle’ stage.
1) It was certainly getting a few hits on my ‘buzzword bingo’ card at the ACES 2025 event a couple weeks ago
2) Though I note that a few (like Richard Wrightson at Delta at EUAA in May 2025) beg to differ slightly … thinking it’s more like the ‘messy beginning’ (implying that there’s much longer to go than others might perceive).
Regardless of perspectives of how far down the journey we are at present, it seems pretty consistent that most people agree that it’s ‘messy’.
So with that in mind (and remembering Eraring in the news only a week ago), it was not a surprise One of the first things I saw (that was energy-related) this morning, on a day full of energy-sector news) was the article ‘Gas plant’s life to be extended’ (with respect to AGL’s Torrens Island Station) in the AFR print edition:
So I thought I would take a very quick look…
(A) Official information, from the relevant parties
First port of call was the AGL website, where I did find this note from Damien Nicks about Torrens in AGL’s ‘2025 Climate Transition Action Plan Briefing’:
Copying in for ease of readability:
‘You will also see that the CTAP also refers to some discussions we have underway with the South Australian government. Recognising the importance of having sufficient long-duration firming capacity to ensure secure, reliable and resilient electricity supply in South Australia, the South Australian Government has requested that AGL consider extending the operation of the Torrens Island ‘B’ Power Station for two years. While the discussions have not yet resulted in a legally binding agreement, AGL has agreed in-principle to the request and continues to engage constructively with the South Australian Government. We consider that this extension, if agreed, would not impact our delivery of the commitments outlined in the CTAP in relation to emissions reduction targets or the approach to responsible transition. ’
If we find something later from the South Australian Government, we’ll add this in here later …
(B) AEMO Market Information
With reference to the MT PASA DUID Availability data set, we turn to the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view and take a quick look at the 3 year + 3 year view, filtered down to the Torrens Station ID:
Remember that this widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to see ‘that other dimension of time’.
We can see that:
1) The notional Maximum Capacity of the station is 840MW (i.e. 4 x 210MW ‘B’ Station units), but:
(a) In the 3 year historical window, the peak capacity available has only ever been as high as 800MW;
(b) And that has not been the case since 24th November 2022, when the peak capacity available was dropped to 600MW
… which I presume meant an expectation of one unit always on outage.
c) A quick search on WattClarity revealed:
i. The article ‘End of the road looming – for Liddell, and also AGL’s Torrens B … and another day delay for Callide C3!’ from 7th July 2021 (though the SMH article referenced only spoke about ‘mothballing’)
ii. Even earlier, there was ‘Questions and Observations–about AGL’s Liddell, Torrens A (and Loy Yang A) stations’ which noted …
… ‘the design made by AGL Energy …. to delay the closure of Torrens A (gas-fired) station in South Australia until after summer 2019-20’
2) Full closure has been planned for 1st July 2026 for some time … and there’s not (yet?) been any movement of that in the MT PASA DUID Availability data set.
(C) Reporting by others?
Where time permits … if we see reporting elsewhere about this, we might try to collate in here.
(D) ESOO 2025
In the AFR article, Ryan Cropp and Angela MacDonald Smith note …
‘According to a report released on Thursday by the Australian Energy Market Operator, the planned closure of the 800-megawatt gas generator in June 2026 could lead to a 390-megawatt power shortfall in South Australia by 2026.’
… which is a segue into the 2025 ESOO, released today
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