Perhaps contributing to the early start to price volatility in NSW this afternoon was the wobble in system frequency shown here:
Here’s a snapshot from the BOM cloud map with a timestamp of 13:30 (NEM time) … so that snapshot’s taken ~50 minutes prior to the NEMDE run producing the price for the 14:25 dispatch interval (NEM time).
The cloud pattern will probably have moved somewhat over that period, but seems to suggest some sort of impact of cloud on rooftop PV:
1) Contributing to ‘Market Demand’ forecast difficulties; and
2) Potentially then into price?
3) And impacting on System Frequency
The by-now-familiar constraints on transmission from southern NSW towards the load centres north seem to be playing their part in this volatility as well.