A burst of heat and volatility in QLD on Tuesday 31st January 2023

A short article to round out the day (which has already seen a few articles) with this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 19:00 dispatch interval:

As per the annotations:

1)  The QLD ‘Market Demand’ is up at 9,306MW:

(a)  Which is up in the ‘red zone’ relative to all-time maximum demand

i.  That all-time maximum ‘Market Demand’  (10,119MW) had set on 8th March 2022 as noted in this article at the time.

ii.  But note that current forecasts would see this Friday’s peak demand exceed that level by a significant amount.

(b)  Market Demand this evening had been as high as 9,357MW:

i.  That was target for the 17:00 dispatch interval

ii.  So it’s worth highlighting that more than 2 hours have passed and the demand remains at a similar level (due to the counterposing influences of slowly receding Underlying Demand but also the last shades of rooftop solar injections).

2)  The QLD dispatch price is up above $500/MWh  …  but we also see it had hit the Market Price Cap ($15,500/MWh) in the 18:40 and 18:45 dispatch intervals.

3)  The Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (i.e. the IRPM) for the Queensland-only ‘Economic Island’ formed by virtue of constrained imports over QNI has dropped to a low of 7%

(a)  With 9,474MW of available generation supplying net Market Demand of 8,877MW

(b)  Leaving only 597MW of ‘spare’ Available Generation.

4)  Little wonder the AEMO published MN105418 notifying of ‘Actual Level of Lack of Reserve (LOR1)’ at 17:52:

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MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     31/01/2023     17:52:36

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         105418
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         31/01/2023
External Reference      :         Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the QLD region – 31/01/2023

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the QLD region – 31/01/2023

An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region from 1800 hrs.

The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 1800 hrs.

The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 934 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 901 MW.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

That’s all for now…

PS1 at 19:20 (upgraded to an Actual LOR)

… and now an ‘Actual LOR2‘ in MN105421 as follows:

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 31/01/2023 19:16:51

——————————————————————-

Notice ID : 105421
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 31/01/2023
External Reference : Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 31/01/2023

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD region – 31/01/2023

An Actual LOR2 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region from 1900 hrs.

The Actual LOR2 condition is forecast to exist until 1930 hrs.

The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 500 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 440 MW.

AEMO is seeking an immediate market response.

An insufficient market response may require AEMO to implement an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

PS2 later cancellations

The ‘Actual LOR2‘ was cancelled at 19:40, as noted in MN105423 … and the ‘Actual LOR1‘ was cancelled at 20:40, as noted in MN105426.