Another quick look at demand forecasts in QLD for this Friday, 24th Jan 2025
Dan shares an updated look at our forecast convergence widget for this coming Friday afternoon, in light of the record breaking demand in the region earlier this evening.
All Posts
AEMO cancels ‘Actual LOR2’ for QLD on Wednesday evening 22nd January 2025
Worth a short note to highlight that the AEMO published MN123598 at 19:44 to flag cancellation of 'Actual LOR2' in QLD.
Gladstone unit 2 switches offline, on Wednesday evening 22nd January 2025
One of our ez2view alerts (i.e. the one for ‘coal unit switches off’) configured in the ‘Notifications’ widget triggered at 19:31 (NEM time) on Wednesday evening 22nd January...
How’s Mainland Frequency trending, on Wednesday evening 22nd January 2025?
Given the very tight supply-demand balance in the QLD region on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 (both very low IRPM and also ‘Actual LOR2’) it’s worth a quick look...
AEMO declares ‘Actual LOR2’ in QLD on Wednesday 22nd January 2025
So only seconds after(?) we’ve posted this third article, the AEMO publishes MN123594 at 18:43:09 noting 'Actual LOR2' in QLD on Wed 22nd Jan 2025.
Only 400MW spare (a 4% IRPM) in the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ on Wednesday 22nd January 2025
Third article this evening (Wed 22nd Jan 2025) as the supply-demand balance in QLD tightens first with the sun setting (so disappearance of Solar PV injections, whilst Underlying...
QLD’s new all-time-maximum ‘Market Demand’ on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 was ~500MW higher than P30 predispatch forecasts
Following from QLD's new all-time-maximum level of 'Market Demand' we take a quick look at actual levels, compared to AEMO's earlier (P30 predispatch) forecasts.
New all-time-maximum ‘Market Demand’ seen in QLD on Wednesday 22nd January 2025
A first quick article (with a NEMwatch snapshot at 17:55) noting the new all-time-maximum level of 'Market Demand' in QLD on Wednesday afternoon/evening 22nd January 2025.
Daytime outage of Bouldercombe to Calliope River (812) in QLD
An ez2view snapshot on Wednesday afternoon 22nd January 2025 with an illustration of the ‘Q-BCCP_812’ constraint set.
Afternoon volatility in NSW, on Wednesday 22nd January 2025
Worth recording a snapshot from NEMwatch at 13:35 (NEM time) on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 with the NSW price up at $14,028.17/MWh.
Guest Authored Posts
The top 10 batteries under FPP
In his second article, Jack Fox uses the Non Financial Operation (NFO) data to take a look specifically at batteries, and how they would have performed under FPP.
An initial look at Winners and Losers from Frequency Performance Payments (FPP)
In his first article, Jack Fox reports some initial observations from a review of the Non Financial Operations (NFO) data that's been published since Dec 2024.
Detailed Analysis
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others - despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
If I were going to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday 18th and Friday 19th, here’s a couple things I would look into…
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in...
Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that "things" will always be that way.
Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain "what might have otherwise been".
A collection of some core analytical challenges
A collection of articles speaking to some core analytical challenges. Others are categorised elsewhere – like my prior thoughts on three reasons why forecasting is a mug’s game.
Why are we completing this extensive review of what happened over a very volatile summer in QLD – and why, and what the future implications might be?
Why are we investing significant time in completing this review of what was remarkable price volatility in QLD over summer? We're primarily a software company that develops shrink-wrapped...