Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
All Posts
Slides circulated, from the Nelson Review briefings during May 2025
Given the instructions were ‘Feel free to share it more widely with your colleagues and networks’, here's the slide deck from the Nelson Review presentations through May 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
A 495MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday morning 5th June 2025
Another short article to note a 495MW drop in demand in NSW (measured in 'Market Demand') to the 10:10 dispatch interval on Thursday 5th June 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
A map showing the geographic spread of semi-scheduled dispatch errors on Monday 26th May 2025
Dan adds to our ongoing case study into the events of Monday 26th May 2025, by mapping the dispatch error across all semi-scheduled units for the 16:15 dispatch interval that afternoon.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A long-run trend of monthly average Contingency FCAS prices in NSW
Another short article with this trend from the ez2view ‘Trends Editor’ to summarise the overall trend of (monthly average) prices in the 8 x Contingency FCAS markets focused on the NSW region.
Stacking up: Unlocking multiple revenue streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Across 188 Semi-Scheduled DUIDs – Dispatch Error at 16:15 on Monday 26th May 2025
This is my second article today relating to events on Monday 26th May 2025 - with this article looking at Dispatch Error for each of the 188 x Semi-Scheduled units to 16:15.
Guest Authored Posts
Not all renewable projects are created equal: Why approval times vary dramatically across Australia
Alice Matthews examines how approval times for renewables vary widely by state and technology — with NSW wind projects facing the longest delays.
Triple C conditions (cold, calm and cloudy) across the NEM last Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
Detailed Analysis
Large-scale solar farm revenue in 2020 part 2 – considering LGCs
Marcelle extends last week's comparison of solar farm energy spot market revenue in 2020 by adding in an estimate of the LGC (green certificate) revenue.
A Comparison of Large-Scale Solar Farm Revenue in 2020
Which solar farms performed best in 2020? Marcelle compares spot revenue performance across the NEM.
Using the GSD2020 to explore operating patterns across generation types
With the release of the Generator Statistical Digest 2020, Marcelle Gannon takes a look at how it can be useful for identifying and exploring different patterns of generation.
AEMO releases ‘Quarterly Energy Dynamics’ for Q4 2020
Quite a synergistic coincidence today that, at the same time as we are finalizing the release of the GSD2020, we see the AEMO publishes its Quarterly Energy Dynamics for Q4 2020.
Increasing the transparency and correctness of intermittent generation availability information to AEMO
Following up to AEMO's recent Intermittent Generator forum, Marcelle looks at the challenges for wind and solar farms in providing consistently good plant availability information to AEMO and the value of transparency of this...
PPAs aren’t as easy as they used to be!
This is the fourth of a short series of video snippets extracted from the 17th September 2020 presentation by Marcelle Gannon and Jonathon Dyson for the Clean Energy Council entitled ‘Maximising Profitability in the...
How does a wind or solar farm make money?
This is the third of a short series of video snippets extracted from the 17th September 2020 presentation by Marcelle Gannon and Jonathon Dyson for the Clean Energy Council entitled ‘Maximising Profitability in the...
Conformance and compliance–what’s the difference?
This is the second of a short series of video snippets extracted from the 17th September 2020 presentation by Marcelle Gannon and Jonathon Dyson for the Clean Energy Council entitled ‘Maximising Profitability in the...