Another quick look at demand forecasts in QLD for this Friday, 24th Jan 2025
Dan shares an updated look at our forecast convergence widget for this coming Friday afternoon, in light of the record breaking demand in the region earlier this evening.
Dan shares an updated look at our forecast convergence widget for this coming Friday afternoon, in light of the record breaking demand in the region earlier this evening.
Worth a short note to highlight that the AEMO published MN123598 at 19:44 to flag cancellation of 'Actual LOR2' in QLD.
One of our ez2view alerts (i.e. the one for ‘coal unit switches off’) configured in the ‘Notifications’ widget triggered at 19:31 (NEM time) on Wednesday evening 22nd January...
Given the very tight supply-demand balance in the QLD region on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 (both very low IRPM and also ‘Actual LOR2’) it’s worth a quick look...
So only seconds after(?) we’ve posted this third article, the AEMO publishes MN123594 at 18:43:09 noting 'Actual LOR2' in QLD on Wed 22nd Jan 2025.
Third article this evening (Wed 22nd Jan 2025) as the supply-demand balance in QLD tightens first with the sun setting (so disappearance of Solar PV injections, whilst Underlying...
Following from QLD's new all-time-maximum level of 'Market Demand' we take a quick look at actual levels, compared to AEMO's earlier (P30 predispatch) forecasts.
A first quick article (with a NEMwatch snapshot at 17:55) noting the new all-time-maximum level of 'Market Demand' in QLD on Wednesday afternoon/evening 22nd January 2025.
An ez2view snapshot on Wednesday afternoon 22nd January 2025 with an illustration of the ‘Q-BCCP_812’ constraint set.
Worth recording a snapshot from NEMwatch at 13:35 (NEM time) on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 with the NSW price up at $14,028.17/MWh.
In his second article, Jack Fox uses the Non Financial Operation (NFO) data to take a look specifically at batteries, and how they would have performed under FPP.
In his first article, Jack Fox reports some initial observations from a review of the Non Financial Operations (NFO) data that's been published since Dec 2024.
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others - despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in...
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that "things" will always be that way.
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain "what might have otherwise been".
A collection of articles speaking to some core analytical challenges. Others are categorised elsewhere – like my prior thoughts on three reasons why forecasting is a mug’s game.
Why are we investing significant time in completing this review of what was remarkable price volatility in QLD over summer? We're primarily a software company that develops shrink-wrapped...