New lowest-ever* point for NSW ‘Market Demand’ on Sunday 16th Feb 2025 was lower than AEMO’s earlier forecasts
Second article pertaining to the remarkably low level of 'Market Demand' in NSW on Sunday 16th February 2025.
All Posts
‘Lowest ever*’ point for ‘Market Demand’ in NSW crashes lower, on Sunday 16th February 2025
The bottom has dropped out of the 'record minimum demand' point for NSW on Sunday 16th February 2025.
NEM Mainland Frequency wandering (somewhat more than ‘normal’) on Thursday afternoon 13th February 2025
A quick note with snapshot taken at ~15:11 on Thursday 13th February 2025 looking back at the past 6 hours of NEM Mainland Frequency.
An initial walk through contributions in South Australia on Wednesday 12th February 2025 (i.e. Part 1)
If I had time, we'd explore three separate questions we have about what happened in South Australia on Wednesday 12th February 2025. In this article we take a first pass at one of those...
Spare capacity in South Australia drops below 100MW on Wednesday evening 12th February 2025
A follow-on article focused on the 19:00 dispatch interval on Wednesday 12th February 2025 in South Australia (a very tight period for supply-demand balance).
‘Market Demand’ soars in South Australia on Wednesday evening 12th February 2025
Tuesday 12th February 2025 is seeing very high levels of 'Market Demand' into the evening in South Australia.
Whiplash abated … market oscillations stopped on Wednesday afternoon 12th February 2025
Following an earlier article (on Wednesday morning 12th February 2024) we note the end of oscillations related to the newly composed ‘N-BU_330_TX_ONE’ constraint set for an outage related to Project Energy Connect.
A trend of daily peak SA ‘Market Demand’– from 1st January 2008 to 11th February 2025
With respect to forecasts for peak South Australian ‘Market Demand’ in summer 2024-25 (and particularly with expectations of high demand on Wed 12th Feb 2025) we've provided this article as some context.
Whiplash from yo-yo-ing prices (and hence targets etc) on Wednesday morning 12th February 2025
Wednesday morning 12th February 2024 sees rapid and large oscillations in prices across all regions - which results from (and/or leads to) oscillations in output of many units. One of the contributing factors is...
Evening volatility in South Australia, with high demand, on Tuesday 11th February 2025
With warnings that tomorrow could see high (higher!) demand in South Australia, we take a quick look at high demand experienced on Tuesday 11th February 2025.
Guest Authored Posts
Do we have enough gas to wait until nuclear comes along?
Tristan Edis of Green Energy Markets discusses the practicalities of the gap that must be filled by the gas sector under the nuclear power timeline proposed by the Federal Opposition.
The challenge of imperfect foresight: Storage operation in a highly renewable NEM
Josh Boegheim from Powerlink discusses the limitations of perfect foresight assumptions for system planning—and shares results from a recent study that simulated energy storage dispatch using deterministic and stochastic forecasting approaches.
Detailed Analysis
Do you know of people who can help us?
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re blessed with opportunities at...
5 FAQs we’re asked about the Generator Report Card (for discussion at AIE this evening)
We've been invited by the Australian Institute of Energy (AIE) to speak this evening in Sydney about some of the lessons learnt in the process of completing our Generator Report Card. Here's some context...
Villain #5 – not focusing on the real problems
Fifteen months after first speaking at Clean Energy Summit about the train wreck that's ongoing in terms of our mismanaged energy transition (and coincident with another industry gathering in the form of the AFR...
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others - despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
If I were going to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday 18th and Friday 19th, here’s a couple things I would look into…
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in Victoria and South Australia
Analytical Challenge – avoiding Recency Bias
Flagging the ongoing challenge of not extrapolating from recent performance to infer that "things" will always be that way.
Analytical Challenge – determining “what might have otherwise been?”
One of the challenges in analysis is to even be conscious of the need to ascertain "what might have otherwise been".