We just witnessed another eventful Q2, with at least four drivers contributing to significant price volatility. This is our annual review of Q2 prices, where we compare these outcomes against the long-term trend.
Read MoreA view of cumulative total wind production in Q2, highlighting a lack of spatial resource diversity, and the future challenges for gas and long-duration storage.
Unlike the first ~28 days in the month of May 2024, the aggregate production of power from Wind Farms across the NEM has ramped up from late Tuesday 28th May and reached a high point Thursday morning 30th May 2024 only 371MW below the all-time maximum production.
The AEMO has extended the scheduled invocation of the ‘N-CTYS_3L_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set (which contains the ‘N::N_CTYS_2’ constraint equation – one factor in the outcomes on Wed 8th May 2024).
On Tuesday morning 21st May 2024 the Vales Point 6 unit has returned to service, ~2 days earlier than earlier expectations.
Following numerous Market Notices overnight pertaining to Forecast LOR2 (or LOR1) in NSW for a number of coming days, here’s a summary on Saturday morning 18th May 2024 using ‘Forecast Convergence’ from ez2view.
A deeper dive into the geographic spread of wind farm generation and curtailment last Wednesday evening including a look into wind conditions and network topology.
An update (via Market Notice at 11:21) on the forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday morning 20th May 2024.
An update on LinkedIn by an electricity retail broker (Choice Energy) prompts this update on NSW electricity futures price movements.
A new data update from AEMO confirms the suspicion that (based on current expectations) Eraring unit 2 is now offline until Tuesday 21st May 2024.
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
Yesterday afternoon (Thu 16th May) Eraring unit 2 commenced return to service. But it hit a snag that evening, came offline, and might be off for a few more days?
On Thursday afternoon 16th May 2024, Eraring unit 2 (after a 15-day outage due to a boiler tube leak) has commenced the return-to-service process.
Following an article yesterday about ‘another challenging week for VRE NEM-wide, we take a quick look at forecasts for the coming 7 days and see low wind persisting.
Also on social media was a comment by Jess Hunt about low wind conditions in South Australia currently … which has prompted these thoughts.
At 19:55 (NEM time) on Wednesday 8th May 2024, the NSW region commenced Administered Pricing for ENERGY and 10 x FCAS commodities, following a rapid spell of spot price volatility.
Price volatility has continued in NSW this afternoon, starting at around 3:40pm local time.
A second article providing some more detail on the spot price volatility in NSW on Tuesday evening 7th May 2024
A short initial article about the spot price volatility in NSW on Tuesday evening 7th May 2024
Murraylink had been offline on an outage, but returned to service on Friday 19th April 2024